NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	4.2 [943]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (MIL): +7.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	97		Comeback	1.5 [1020]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): -15.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mateen Cleaves	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.01	0.04	14	58%	0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	56%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.02
Jud Buechler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	5	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	9	39%	-0.02	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Eric Montross	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	17	40%	-0.07	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	13	41%	-0.04	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.03	-0.05	14	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	12	71%	0.12	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	9	61%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	4	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	13	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	0.00	14	34%	-0.11	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.4	29.4	15.5	29.4	2.3	29.6	130.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +32.0%

DET -2.8%

MIL +0.4%

MIL +21.3%

DET -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	15.5	92.6	100.0	100.9
season	14.3	14.9		97.9	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.4		102.3	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.1	15.0	16.4	14.6	15.2
MIL	13.8	13.8	15.7	16.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	22	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-8	7	16.8	14.8	2.02	14.9	14.7	0.13
Billy Owens	37	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-11	13	15.9	14.8	1.14	14.8	14.7	0.10
Jud Buechler	40	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-15	21	15.7	14.9	0.87	14.9	14.7	0.23
Mateen Cleaves	43	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-6	3	15.6	14.9	0.62	14.9	14.7	0.23
Mikki Moore	38	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.40	6	-15	21	13.8	16.2	-2.34	15.9	14.1	1.83
Jerome Williams	36	36	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	2	-13	15.7	14.9	0.85	14.4	15.0	-0.63
John Wallace	39	40	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-11	13	14.5	15.7	-1.29	14.9	14.7	0.24
Chucky Atkins	52	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-3	-3	14.9	15.6	-0.62	14.7	14.9	-0.23
Ben Wallace	57	59	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	0.20	-17	8	-25	16.2	13.8	2.34	14.1	15.9	-1.83
Michael Curry	55	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	-1	-7	14.5	16.2	-1.65	14.9	14.7	0.15
Jerry Stackhouse	56	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	6	-21	14.7	16.0	-1.36	14.7	14.9	-0.23

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	68	65	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-10	29	14.4	15.7	-1.24	15.3	15.1	0.23
Sam Cassell	65	63	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.02	17	-8	25	14.6	15.2	-0.70	15.5	14.6	0.90
Tim Thomas	62	60	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	-1	11	14.9	14.6	0.33	14.7	16.1	-1.41
Lindsey Hunter	64	62	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.05	13	-4	17	15.4	13.7	1.69	15.3	15.1	0.20
Scott Williams	37	36	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	2	5	14.8	14.8	-0.04	16.2	14.6	1.66
Ray Allen	61	62	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.33	-4	13	-17	14.2	15.8	-1.67	15.3	15.1	0.20
Jason Caffey	39	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	9	-9	14.3	15.1	-0.88	16.9	14.0	2.94
Ervin Johnson	38	36	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	6	-3	15.6	14.3	1.35	15.5	15.1	0.40
Darvin Ham	37	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	9	-9	13.8	15.4	-1.57	14.8	15.5	-0.62
Michael Redd	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	15	-21	18.7	14.6	4.14	5.5	15.6	-10.15
Rafer Alston	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	15	-21	18.7	14.6	4.14	5.5	15.6	-10.15
Joel Przybilla	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	17	-25	19.5	14.5	5.03	11.9	15.5	-3.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, TOR 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
DAL 79, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
NJN 107, ATL 130	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%