NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	96		Excitement	4.3 [966]		MVP	Nick Smith Jr. (CHA): +12.4%
Toronto Raptors	126		Comeback	1.5 [1152]		LVP	KJ Simpson (CHA): -17.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Smith Jr.	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.22	0.01	0.11	13	87%	0.13	2	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
DaQuan Jeffries	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tidjane Salaun	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	11	41%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Moore Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.11	-0.02	0.11	19	62%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Jaylen Sims	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Damion Baugh	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
KJ Simpson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.01	0.02	10	27%	-0.10	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	15	57%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	9	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jared Rhoden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.18	0.00	0.14	12	82%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jamison Battle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	11	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	6	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Mogbo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	0.01	16	50%	0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	-0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Cole Swider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	0.06	8	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.4	23.2	14.7	27.1	1.8	25.2	117.1
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +28.4%

CHA -4.0%

TOR +11.7%

TOR +12.4%

TOR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	TOR	NBA	CHA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	12.9	14.4	93.2	124.8	113.0
season	15.0	13.9		106.2	109.0
opponent	14.6	14.2		113.0	115.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	17.0	14.9	13.7	15.9	15.3
TOR	13.5	12.8	12.0	13.4	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damion Baugh	48	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-25	20	13.8	16.7	-2.84	12.3	13.3	-1.02
Tidjane Salaun	66	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.23	-14	-16	2	15.7	14.7	0.98	13.3	12.2	1.05
Taj Gibson	40	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-23	16	13.5	16.5	-2.91	12.5	13.1	-0.55
DaQuan Jeffries	49	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.31	-18	-12	-6	16.4	14.3	2.10	13.6	12.2	1.46
Jusuf Nurkic	53	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.40	-23	-7	-16	17.5	13.1	4.41	12.9	12.9	-0.04
Jaylen Sims	54	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.33	-21	-9	-12	14.8	16.0	-1.20	12.3	13.5	-1.23
Wendell Moore Jr.	57	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	-15	0	14.8	16.0	-1.25	12.2	13.7	-1.46
Nick Smith Jr.	79	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.14	-19	-11	-8	15.1	16.1	-0.98	13.2	11.7	1.48
KJ Simpson	69	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.34	-28	-2	-26	15.8	14.3	1.50	13.2	12.3	0.88

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Mogbo	80	81	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.24	20	10	10	12.7	13.7	-1.05	15.2	15.6	-0.39
Scottie Barnes	44	44	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	20	-10	13.4	12.5	0.90	14.9	15.6	-0.70
Cole Swider	56	57	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.52	29	1	28	12.6	13.2	-0.62	15.0	15.7	-0.70
Jared Rhoden	64	66	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.44	26	4	22	12.2	14.1	-1.94	15.3	15.5	-0.20
A.J. Lawson	59	60	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.23	18	12	6	12.9	12.9	-0.04	14.9	16.0	-1.07
Orlando Robinson	67	68	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.22	16	14	2	13.7	11.2	2.48	16.2	13.6	2.58
Jamison Battle	57	58	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.19	14	16	-2	12.6	13.3	-0.69	15.6	15.0	0.55
RJ Barrett	30	31	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	24	-18	13.0	12.8	0.17	15.5	15.3	0.22
Immanuel Quickley	30	31	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	24	-18	13.0	12.8	0.17	15.5	15.3	0.22
Garrett Temple	18	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	25	-20	13.5	12.7	0.75	14.8	15.4	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
DAL 79, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
NJN 107, ATL 130	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%