NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	103		Excitement	2.1 [367]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +34.6%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.4 [992]		LVP	Cole Anthony (MIL): -17.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
AJ Green	0.15	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	6	100%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.02	15	63%	0.08	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Ryan Rollins	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	24	53%	0.14	4	-0.10	1	0%	-0.04
Gary Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.01	14	54%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jericho Sims	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.03	-0.02	14	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Kuzma	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	11	36%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	7	12%	-0.09	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.16	-0.00	15	76%	0.38	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.06
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	6	79%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	6	42%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	11	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	16	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	10	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	27.3	11.7	27.7	1.6	25.1	118.7
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +32.5%

MIA +15.5%

MIL -7.8%

MIA +10.3%

MIL -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	12.2	14.2	103.0	102.9	113.4
season	14.7	12.9		110.9	114.9
opponent	14.5	14.3		112.7	117.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.5	15.5	17.0	15.9	16.2
MIA	12.2	11.3	13.7	11.8	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Anthony	64	65	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	1	-5	17.0	14.9	2.09	12.3	12.0	0.27
Jericho Sims	68	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-1	-1	16.7	15.1	1.58	12.6	11.4	1.26
Myles Turner	89	90	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.37	5	-8	13	15.8	19.5	-3.66	12.4	10.9	1.45
Gary Harris	82	83	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	1	-5	16.7	13.8	2.95	12.5	10.9	1.54
AJ Green	85	87	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-6	9	15.8	18.5	-2.67	12.4	11.2	1.12
Gary Trent Jr.	92	94	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.39	3	-6	9	16.0	18.7	-2.77	12.2	11.8	0.46
Bobby Portis	71	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	3	-9	16.9	14.5	2.42	12.4	11.7	0.65
Ryan Rollins	97	99	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.44	1	-4	5	16.0	21.3	-5.29	12.3	8.5	3.84
Kyle Kuzma	82	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.35	-2	-1	-1	15.6	18.8	-3.21	11.7	14.5	-2.86

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	97	94	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	0	3	12.0	16.0	-4.04	16.0	19.0	-2.98
Kel'el Ware	97	94	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	-3	9	12.3	10.3	1.98	16.2	15.5	0.74
Pelle Larsson	78	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	-6	15	12.2	12.2	-0.06	16.6	15.0	1.63
Dru Smith	78	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	-6	15	12.2	12.2	-0.06	16.6	15.0	1.63
Davion Mitchell	91	89	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	2	-1	11.7	15.7	-3.93	16.0	18.2	-2.23
Andrew Wiggins	87	86	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	4	-5	11.9	14.0	-2.14	15.8	18.9	-3.09
Bam Adebayo	87	86	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	4	-5	11.9	14.0	-2.14	15.8	18.9	-3.09
Norman Powell	75	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	-3	9	11.8	13.4	-1.60	16.3	16.0	0.27
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	65	64	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	-1	5	12.3	12.0	0.27	17.0	14.9	2.09
Simone Fontecchio	32	31	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	1	1	12.3	12.1	0.17	16.3	16.1	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.97,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 92, NJN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.86,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
DET 92, SAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
GSW 79, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.4%