NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	118		Excitement	6.8 [490]		MVP	Keldon Johnson (SAS): +19.1%
San Antonio Spurs	125		Comeback	26.9 [117]		LVP	Jonathan Mogbo (TOR): -18.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Colin Castleton	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	7	67%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Scottie Barnes	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.12	0.15	0.02	0.05	23	70%	0.21	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
A.J. Lawson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.14	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.05
Jamison Battle	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.04	0.12	-0.09	-0.00	19	66%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Shead	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	12	42%	0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ochai Agbaji	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	15	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Mogbo	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	14	30%	-0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.11	0.03	14	70%	0.27	2	-0.08	5	40%	-0.04
Malaki Branham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	0.00	4	110%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.05	0.02	10	64%	0.14	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.00	8	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.08	-0.04	0.08	-0.04	16	49%	0.22	4	-0.14	9	100%	0.06
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	-0.00	0.07	9	78%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.06	0.00	5	57%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	13	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.4	24.5	14.7	24.6	1.7	36.5	133.1
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.8%

SAS +25.7%

TOR -1.4%

TOR -4.4%

TOR -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAS	NBA	TOR	SAS	NBA
this game	14.0	13.7	14.4	113.5	120.2	113.0
season	13.9	14.2		109.0	113.0
opponent	14.5	14.6		115.6	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	11.8	12.9	16.2	15.4	14.0
SAS	13.5	15.9	12.6	12.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	5	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-6	5	14.4	14.0	0.44	11.5	13.8	-2.30
Jonathan Mogbo	75	77	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-11	15	13.8	14.4	-0.60	14.1	12.7	1.31
A.J. Lawson	44	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-2	-3	14.7	13.5	1.22	13.0	14.2	-1.18
Colin Castleton	59	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-3	-1	14.8	12.9	1.92	13.8	13.6	0.27
Jamal Shead	79	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-4	1	13.8	14.5	-0.71	14.3	11.8	2.50
Scottie Barnes	83	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	2	-11	13.3	16.6	-3.25	13.4	14.9	-1.54
Jamison Battle	93	93	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	0	-7	14.0	13.9	0.08	13.5	15.7	-2.25
Ochai Agbaji	82	81	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.31	-10	3	-13	14.0	14.1	-0.14	13.8	13.3	0.52

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keldon Johnson	59	57	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.37	9	-2	11	13.2	14.3	-1.10	15.3	12.4	2.95
Malaki Branham	38	37	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	-2	11	12.1	14.7	-2.61	14.8	13.5	1.29
Chris Paul	71	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	1	5	14.4	12.2	2.15	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Stephon Castle	81	82	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	5	-3	14.0	12.8	1.19	13.5	15.8	-2.33
Harrison Barnes	72	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	3	1	14.7	11.6	3.06	13.4	15.5	-2.14
Julian Champagnie	76	75	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	5	-3	13.8	13.4	0.48	13.6	14.9	-1.27
Bismack Biyombo	29	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.19	12	-5	17	14.4	13.4	1.02	14.3	13.9	0.40
Sandro Mamukelashvili	42	41	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.19	-4	11	-15	13.4	14.0	-0.59	14.6	13.6	1.00
Blake Wesley	44	41	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	12	-17	12.7	14.5	-1.82	13.9	14.0	-0.09
Jordan McLaughlin	8	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	7	-7	11.6	13.9	-2.26	11.6	14.2	-2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.11,0.2,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.79,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.89,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 93, CHA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.94,0.84,1	92.9%
UTA 99, OKC 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.26,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.73,0.89,0.93,0.94,1,1	92.9%
HOU 89, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.4%