NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	7.5 [296]		MVP	Matt Carroll (CHA): +15.6%
Charlotte Bobcats	99		Comeback	16.6 [102]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -20.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	59%	0.08	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.07	-0.02	-0.01	13	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.07	0.01	15	56%	0.01	2	-0.05	13	62%	-0.12
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.00	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15	-0.04	-0.12	-0.01	14	47%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.2	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	18	42%	-0.14	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.06

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.01	8	81%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.14	0.01	23	52%	0.23	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Gerald Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	30	49%	0.09	0	0.00	14	79%	-0.01
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	6	47%	0.08	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	26.6	15.8	33.0	1.8	39.6	142.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +43.9%

CHA +14.6%

ORL -16.8%

CHA +9.9%

ORL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHA	NBA	ORL	CHA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.8	15.4	102.2	103.1	105.7
season	15.1	15.8		109.9	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.6		107.8	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	13.3	17.2	16.5	15.0
CHA	16.9	16.5	14.1	15.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	32	33	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.03	3	-9	12	13.9	15.5	-1.57	15.6	16.0	-0.38
Adonal Foyle	11	11	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-8	10	15.0	14.9	0.05	17.7	15.6	2.15
Keith Bogans	47	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-6	6	14.8	15.1	-0.26	14.9	16.8	-1.88
Hedo Turkoglu	67	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-1	-4	14.3	16.7	-2.38	15.3	17.5	-2.23
Rashard Lewis	83	85	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-6	6	14.7	17.5	-2.79	16.3	11.8	4.52
Maurice Evans	55	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	2	-10	15.3	14.4	0.85	16.2	15.3	0.95
Keyon Dooling	21	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	17.3	14.2	3.09	16.6	15.6	1.03
Dwight Howard	80	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	2	-10	14.9	15.0	-0.05	15.6	17.7	-2.15
Carlos Arroyo	59	63	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.35	-9	3	-12	15.5	13.9	1.57	16.0	15.6	0.38

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Carroll	60	56	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.30	15	-9	24	15.6	16.1	-0.46	16.3	12.9	3.41
Gerald Wallace	91	86	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	-3	12	15.5	21.6	-6.09	15.1	12.8	2.28
Raymond Felton	85	80	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.30	8	-2	10	15.6	17.7	-2.15	14.9	15.0	-0.05
Jason Richardson	92	87	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	1	4	15.9	13.5	2.42	14.8	18.2	-3.45
Emeka Okafor	46	44	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	5	-4	17.0	14.7	2.34	14.9	15.0	-0.09
Nazr Mohammed	50	47	0.20	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	1	4	14.7	17.0	-2.34	15.0	14.9	0.09
Jared Dudley	9	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	8	-10	18.0	15.6	2.40	15.2	14.9	0.30
Jeff McInnis	47	46	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	17	-28	16.5	15.2	1.31	13.4	16.6	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.94,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 86, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.23,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.69,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.88,0.98,0.99,1	92.3%
SAC 90, VAN 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.95,1,1	92.0%
UTA 99, OKC 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.26,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.73,0.89,0.93,0.94,1,1	91.7%