NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	89		Excitement	5.4 [739]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +22.1%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	22.6 [65]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -13.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Montrezl Harrell	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	70%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Clint Capela	0.06	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	5	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.03	0.01	16	66%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	13	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	7	64%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	13	35%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	15	36%	-0.07	5	-0.07	14	86%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,0.01,0.06,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.01	0.18	-0.03	11	45%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.15	0.00	0.10	15	76%	0.12	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.02	0.06	7	73%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	7	44%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.04	0.07	16	53%	-0.02	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	3	44%	-0.03	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.7	27.1	15.5	28.3	1.8	32.1	136.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.6%

HOU -1.2%

MIA +13.1%

MIA +8.2%

MIA +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	15.2	14.9	89.9	113.5	105.1
season	14.0	15.5		105.9	104.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.1	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	11.7	14.0	17.1	15.0	14.3
MIA	14.0	16.7	14.2	16.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clint Capela	27	26	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-24	28	14.3	14.3	-0.07	17.0	14.6	2.47
Jason Terry	9	9	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-24	28	16.3	14.1	2.22	17.4	15.0	2.43
Patrick Beverley	41	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-15	10	14.1	14.5	-0.37	14.4	15.9	-1.53
Marcus Thornton	63	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.27	-15	-5	-10	14.4	14.2	0.14	15.5	14.8	0.74
Charles Hayes	18	18	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-19	18	15.7	14.0	1.72	15.9	15.1	0.87
Trevor Ariza	82	80	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	-7	-6	14.4	13.7	0.73	15.9	12.1	3.74
Corey Brewer	45	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-10	0	13.6	14.9	-1.39	15.0	15.5	-0.53
Montrezl Harrell	49	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	-2	-16	14.4	14.2	0.27	13.7	16.8	-3.15
James Harden	83	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.13	-23	3	-26	14.3	14.4	-0.15	15.0	16.3	-1.35
Ty Lawson	78	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.07	-23	3	-26	14.1	15.1	-1.05	15.2	15.3	-0.09

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	44	47	0.77	-0.27	1.04	-0.02	27	-7	34	15.3	15.2	0.10	14.2	14.4	-0.27
Tyler Johnson	39	42	0.71	-0.21	0.92	-0.02	25	-5	30	15.7	14.9	0.85	15.1	13.7	1.36
Justise Winslow	65	67	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.04	24	-4	28	14.3	17.1	-2.79	13.7	15.5	-1.75
Hassan Whiteside	66	69	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.28	20	0	20	15.3	15.0	0.35	14.6	13.8	0.78
Gerald Green	38	39	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	13	-6	14.5	15.7	-1.22	14.2	14.4	-0.14
Dwyane Wade	64	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.24	15	5	10	15.5	14.7	0.78	14.6	13.8	0.74
Chris Bosh	48	49	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	19	-18	16.0	14.5	1.48	14.6	14.0	0.55
Luol Deng	55	55	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.06	-3	23	-26	15.5	14.9	0.63	13.7	15.0	-1.28
Josh McRoberts	12	12	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.08	-10	30	-40	14.9	15.3	-0.37	11.7	14.7	-2.92
Goran Dragic	49	49	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.06	-6	26	-32	15.1	15.4	-0.24	14.9	13.7	1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 95, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.89,0.86,0.95,0.91,1	92.7%
PHI 95, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.95,1,0.99,1	92.3%
BOS 105, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.24,0.21,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.64,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.96,0.9,0.96,1	91.9%