NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	112		Excitement	6.7 [491]		MVP	LeBron James (LAL): +33.2%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	1.7 [726]		LVP	Anthony Davis (DAL): -8.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.33	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.10	0.17	-0.07	20	59%	0.37	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Luka Doncic	0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.23	-0.01	0.03	28	69%	0.27	3	-0.08	9	67%	-0.02
Rui Hachimura	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	10	68%	0.16	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Austin Reaves	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.04	-0.04	10	50%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Trey Jemison III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dalton Knecht	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bronny James	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Goodwin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	8	31%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	6	71%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	-0.04	-0.03	14	72%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Dereck Lively II	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	1	125%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	12	50%	0.11	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
Max Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	8	61%	0.06	3	-0.13	2	0%	-0.06
Anthony Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	13	42%	0.02	4	-0.11	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.5	26.3	15.7	29.2	3.5	32.5	137.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +9.5%

LAL +8.9%

LAL +3.8%

LAL +25.8%

LAL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DAL	NBA	LAL	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.6	14.4	117.9	101.0	113.1
season	14.9	14.3		114.3	113.3
opponent	14.4	14.2		114.4	113.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.2	14.8	15.2	17.9	15.5
DAL	13.5	16.5	14.8	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Doncic	74	77	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.14	26	-11	37	15.1	16.8	-1.66	14.8	14.2	0.54
Dorian Finney-Smith	62	64	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.02	29	-14	43	15.4	15.7	-0.28	15.7	12.5	3.17
Rui Hachimura	74	76	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.07	21	-6	27	15.7	14.9	0.78	14.8	14.0	0.75
LeBron James	73	74	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-3	21	15.2	16.6	-1.46	14.7	14.5	0.25
Austin Reaves	77	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-4	23	15.5	15.5	0.02	14.8	13.8	1.07
Jordan Goodwin	16	16	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	17	-19	15.8	15.5	0.36	14.1	14.7	-0.63
Trey Jemison III	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	23.7	15.2	8.42	11.5	14.7	-3.21
Dalton Knecht	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	23.7	15.2	8.42	11.5	14.7	-3.21
Bronny James	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	23.7	15.2	8.42	11.5	14.7	-3.21
Jarred Vanderbilt	26	25	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	24	-33	15.1	15.7	-0.60	14.9	14.6	0.32
Jaxson Hayes	30	31	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.05	-9	24	-33	14.2	16.1	-1.97	12.2	15.8	-3.62
Gabe Vincent	34	33	-0.45	0.95	-1.41	0.01	-16	31	-47	16.1	15.2	0.85	14.3	14.8	-0.48

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gafford	29	30	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.08	7	-22	29	14.8	14.6	0.26	15.1	15.7	-0.56
Dwight Powell	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	11.5	14.7	-3.21	23.7	15.2	8.42
Caleb Martin	39	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-19	23	15.6	14.0	1.59	16.4	14.9	1.43
Spencer Dinwiddie	56	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-15	15	16.0	12.8	3.21	15.4	15.6	-0.17
Max Christie	53	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-8	1	15.5	13.6	1.84	16.5	14.3	2.23
Anthony Davis	67	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-5	-5	14.4	15.3	-0.95	15.5	15.5	-0.03
Naji Marshall	73	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-6	-3	13.8	17.5	-3.72	15.6	15.3	0.28
Klay Thompson	59	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.13	-19	4	-23	14.3	15.2	-0.93	15.1	16.1	-1.03
Dereck Lively II	33	32	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.04	-17	2	-19	14.5	14.7	-0.15	14.3	16.1	-1.81
P.J. Washington	69	66	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	0.02	-25	10	-35	14.0	16.3	-2.35	15.0	16.8	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.3,0.19,0.13,0.17,0.25,0.31,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.44,0.58,0.37,0.17,0.29,0.17,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 112, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	92.4%
MIA 113, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	91.7%
CHI 95, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.22,0.18,0.33,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.01,0	91.6%