NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	6.3 [561]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +24.8%
Indiana Pacers	101		Comeback	2.1 [664]		LVP	Myles Turner (IND): -17.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.10	0.16	0.01	19	60%	0.27	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.01	9	68%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.01	0.06	15	67%	0.16	4	-0.11	12	83%	0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	35%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	5	75%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	0.00	6	83%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Warren	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	18	61%	0.18	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.00	4	137%	0.15	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Victor Oladipo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Edmond Sumner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	18	48%	0.01	3	-0.06	10	90%	0.01
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.08	0.02	11	37%	-0.11	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	2.8	28.2	16.3	26.5	2.7	32.2	139.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.5%

MIA +7.4%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +17.4%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	14.2	120.2	108.6	109.6
season	14.7	14.4		111.7	108.7
opponent	14.4	14.5		107.4	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	13.4	16.7	15.8	15.1
IND	13.2	15.4	17.6	16.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	67	68	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.14	23	-11	34	15.1	15.4	-0.31	15.7	15.5	0.19
Jimmy Butler	72	72	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.10	13	-1	14	15.0	15.6	-0.58	15.5	16.1	-0.57
Tyler Herro	66	65	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.08	6	6	0	15.5	14.3	1.23	15.2	16.7	-1.51
Kelly Olynyk	28	26	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	6	0	15.4	15.1	0.30	15.0	15.9	-0.96
Duncan Robinson	44	45	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	12	-12	15.6	14.8	0.83	16.2	15.2	1.01
Andre Iguodala	29	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.01	-8	20	-28	13.7	15.8	-2.06	14.0	16.4	-2.42
Derrick Jones Jr.	27	25	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.01	-11	23	-34	15.4	15.1	0.31	15.5	15.7	-0.19

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaKarr Sampson	31	33	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.05	5	-17	22	15.4	15.8	-0.45	16.8	14.2	2.57
Justin Holiday	62	62	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-13	14	16.0	15.0	0.94	14.9	15.7	-0.86
Victor Oladipo	18	19	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-14	16	13.4	16.2	-2.74	15.0	15.2	-0.19
T.J. McConnell	25	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-6	0	16.0	15.5	0.53	15.2	15.1	0.06
Edmond Sumner	54	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-6	0	15.1	16.4	-1.30	15.2	15.0	0.18
Aaron Holiday	30	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-11	10	15.9	15.6	0.31	16.2	14.6	1.57
Malcolm Brogdon	76	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-3	-6	15.7	15.6	0.08	15.1	15.6	-0.50
T.J. Warren	73	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.09	-13	1	-14	15.6	15.8	-0.18	15.1	15.3	-0.18
Doug McDermott	32	34	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	2	-16	16.8	15.0	1.81	14.8	15.3	-0.51
Myles Turner	64	63	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.14	-19	7	-26	15.8	15.4	0.35	14.3	16.8	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.29,0.35,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.38,0.42,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.02,0	92.6%
UTA 112, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	92.4%
LAL 113, NJN 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.56,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.35,0.29,0.41,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.43,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.06,0,0	92.4%