NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	105		Excitement	6.9 [485]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +27.2%
Miami Heat	117		Comeback	1.9 [962]		LVP	Ricky Council IV (PHI): -16.4%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lonnie Walker IV	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.17	0.08	0.02	18	72%	0.31	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Jared Butler	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	6	57%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	25	52%	0.08	3	-0.07	6	50%	0.01
Colin Castleton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Hood-Schifino	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Reese	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	4	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Bagley	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	8	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Adem Bona	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	0.05	11	62%	0.03	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
Ricky Council IV	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	6	29%	-0.07	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.23	0.11	0.07	8	117%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.07	-0.03	6	67%	0.13	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.07	0.01	16	53%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	36%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Josh Christopher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keshad Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	12	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	10	45%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	0.05	14	65%	0.06	7	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.8	27.7	14.8	27.4	2.3	26.7	125.7
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +46.9%

PHI -7.8%

PHI -0.3%

MIA +7.6%

MIA +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.6	14.4	106.1	119.4	113.0
season	15.0	15.0		110.4	111.5
opponent	14.6	14.2		112.2	116.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	12.8	15.6	13.8	16.3	14.6
MIA	15.3	13.7	14.4	15.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Butler	56	55	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-15	18	13.6	15.9	-2.24	14.1	15.3	-1.18
Marcus Bagley	49	48	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.10	-2	-10	8	14.3	14.9	-0.53	14.8	14.5	0.37
Quentin Grimes	82	81	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	-6	0	13.4	20.5	-7.09	14.3	16.2	-1.86
Kyle Lowry	37	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-6	0	15.8	13.9	1.90	16.1	13.7	2.39
Adem Bona	75	75	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-4	-4	13.3	18.5	-5.15	14.4	15.4	-0.98
Lonnie Walker IV	81	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-4	-4	14.8	13.6	1.20	15.4	11.6	3.82
Colin Castleton	24	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-8	4	18.5	13.3	5.15	15.4	14.4	0.98
Ricky Council IV	39	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-3	-6	15.5	14.0	1.43	14.9	14.5	0.47
Jalen Hood-Schifino	37	38	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.35	-8	-4	-4	16.6	13.4	3.15	14.7	14.6	0.15
Alex Reese	15	15	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	0	-12	14.5	14.6	-0.07	8.9	15.7	-6.74

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davion Mitchell	70	73	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.01	27	-15	42	14.2	15.7	-1.45	15.2	12.8	2.37
Kyle Anderson	48	49	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.03	22	-10	32	14.9	14.4	0.54	16.2	13.0	3.22
Duncan Robinson	49	50	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.12	16	-4	20	15.0	14.3	0.63	16.0	13.2	2.76
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	26	26	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.30	8	4	4	15.6	14.3	1.32	16.6	13.9	2.69
Kel'el Ware	74	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	1	10	14.3	15.7	-1.47	13.8	17.3	-3.47
Tyler Herro	70	71	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	7	-2	14.4	15.2	-0.80	13.7	16.8	-3.10
Josh Christopher	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	16	-20	11.5	14.7	-3.21	13.0	14.6	-1.61
Keshad Johnson	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	16	-20	11.5	14.7	-3.21	13.0	14.6	-1.61
Pelle Larsson	59	58	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	17	-22	13.8	15.9	-2.04	13.3	16.4	-3.10
Haywood Highsmith	59	58	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.06	-8	20	-28	15.3	13.6	1.75	14.6	14.6	-0.02
Alec Burks	31	32	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	20	-28	15.8	14.1	1.75	13.2	15.2	-1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.68,0.73,0.61,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.83,0.81,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, WAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.68,0.86,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.9%
SEA 95, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.93,1,1,1,1	91.7%
HOU 90, NOK 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.48,0.73,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	91.7%