NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	7.4 [354]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +32.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	120		Comeback	5.7 [327]		LVP	Andrew Wiggins (MIA): -18.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.26,0.21,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.16	0.17	0.01	27	59%	0.39	2	-0.06	14	93%	0.06
Bam Adebayo	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.00	0.04	16	69%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kel'el Ware	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	10	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	-0.18	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	20	43%	-0.07	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21	0.21	0.17	0.06	0.03	17	70%	0.22	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	0.01	12	55%	0.19	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.06	-0.01	11	68%	0.19	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.00	7	61%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	9	73%	0.16	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.04	18	64%	0.16	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jericho Sims	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.4	33.5	14.5	29.3	2.4	28.3	139.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +53.3%

MIA -6.5%

MIL +3.9%

MIA -0.4%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	14.8	14.4	115.3	122.4	113.1
season	15.0	14.4		111.5	113.5
opponent	14.2	14.7		111.9	111.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	13.8	15.7	14.7	14.5
MIL	13.6	15.0	15.6	15.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	31	32	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.06	9	-16	25	14.2	14.7	-0.51	15.3	14.6	0.74
Tyler Herro	80	81	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.29	7	-14	21	14.2	16.1	-1.92	15.2	13.2	2.02
Kel'el Ware	75	75	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-6	5	14.5	14.6	-0.09	15.0	14.4	0.54
Duncan Robinson	43	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-4	1	15.0	14.2	0.74	14.8	14.9	-0.07
Terry Rozier	22	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	0	-7	15.6	14.2	1.41	12.2	15.6	-3.38
Davion Mitchell	67	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.32	2	-9	11	14.2	15.2	-1.00	15.5	13.4	2.13
Kyle Anderson	18	17	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	4	-15	16.1	14.2	1.92	13.8	15.1	-1.31
Andrew Wiggins	82	81	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.18	-15	8	-23	14.6	14.1	0.57	14.7	15.5	-0.75
Bam Adebayo	72	73	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.16	-16	9	-25	14.3	15.2	-0.83	14.7	15.3	-0.64

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	66	65	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.04	16	-9	25	14.7	15.1	-0.32	14.7	14.3	0.40
Kyle Kuzma	68	68	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.47	-2	9	-11	15.0	14.6	0.40	14.4	14.8	-0.42
AJ Green	59	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	8	-9	16.0	13.1	2.98	14.1	15.1	-1.03
Kevin Porter Jr.	29	28	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	-1	9	13.8	15.3	-1.50	15.4	14.2	1.24
Jericho Sims	29	28	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	2	3	14.0	15.2	-1.20	15.6	14.1	1.44
Gary Trent Jr.	48	48	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	2	3	14.5	15.2	-0.68	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Brook Lopez	69	70	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	5	-3	15.2	14.0	1.20	14.1	15.6	-1.44
Damian Lillard	76	78	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	10	-13	15.2	13.6	1.56	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Andre Jackson Jr.	4	4	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.05	5	2	3	9.7	15.1	-5.31	15.7	14.5	1.26
Ryan Rollins	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	8	-9	1.0	15.0	-13.99	2.0	14.7	-12.67
Taurean Prince	41	42	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.13	1	6	-5	14.4	15.1	-0.70	15.2	14.0	1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.72,0.49,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.69,0.55,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 112, SAS 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.84,1	91.8%
CHA 118, DAL 124	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.99,1	90.8%
BOS 106, NOH 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.31,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.95,0.96,1	90.7%