NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Excitement	8.4 [208]		MVP	Anthony Edwards (MIN): +33.0%
San Antonio Spurs	113		Comeback	8.7 [37]		LVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): -21.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Edwards	0.33	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.26,0.08,0.18,0.33	0.18	0.16	0.01	18	80%	0.51	4	-0.18	4	50%	-0.02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	7	79%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.01	0.03	9	86%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Naz Reid	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	12	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jaden McDaniels	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shake Milton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Karl-Anthony Towns	-0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,-0.21	0.03	-0.25	-0.01	16	58%	-0.13	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.14	0.18	0.02	17	74%	0.35	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	5	90%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12	0.12	-0.01	0.12	0.00	14	47%	0.16	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.06
Dominick Barlow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.02	5	75%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tre Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	86%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	9	59%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Blake Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.03,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	17	59%	0.06	6	-0.17	5	40%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.4	23.4	14.8	24.3	2.5	29.2	125.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +16.9%

MIN -0.1%

SAS +26.1%

SAS +0.5%

SAS +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	16.1	15.1	14.5	121.7	121.5	113.9
season	14.8	13.9		114.5	108.6
opponent	14.3	14.7		115.2	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	15.6	15.9	17.5	16.1
SAS	14.0	14.4	16.1	16.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shake Milton	31	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-5	9	16.2	16.0	0.14	14.8	15.2	-0.40
Naz Reid	44	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.22	5	-6	11	15.7	16.4	-0.60	13.8	16.2	-2.39
Jaden McDaniels	63	65	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.40	11	-12	23	15.8	16.7	-0.96	15.6	13.8	1.85
Anthony Edwards	72	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.44	7	-8	15	16.2	15.7	0.40	15.5	13.7	1.76
Kyle Anderson	39	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	4	-9	16.4	15.8	0.55	13.2	16.3	-3.11
Jordan McLaughlin	19	18	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	10	-21	17.2	15.8	1.38	13.7	15.4	-1.75
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	61	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-3	5	15.9	16.4	-0.53	15.5	14.2	1.29
Rudy Gobert	72	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	3	-7	15.9	16.6	-0.75	15.3	14.4	0.84
Karl-Anthony Towns	59	61	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.27	-14	13	-27	16.3	15.7	0.62	16.0	13.4	2.59

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Wembanyama	60	60	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.45	19	-18	37	14.5	16.2	-1.67	15.9	16.4	-0.52
Tre Jones	56	55	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.31	18	-17	35	15.1	15.1	0.04	16.0	16.2	-0.21
Keldon Johnson	51	51	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	1	-1	15.0	15.2	-0.21	15.9	16.3	-0.45
Doug McDermott	33	32	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-10	21	14.6	15.3	-0.68	17.4	15.3	2.10
Jeremy Sochan	58	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.42	-3	4	-7	15.4	14.5	0.99	15.8	16.5	-0.65
Devin Vassell	71	70	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.50	-9	10	-19	15.0	15.5	-0.50	15.8	16.9	-1.11
Cedi Osman	32	30	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	-2	5	14.4	15.4	-1.07	16.4	15.9	0.45
Julian Champagnie	34	34	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	0	1	15.9	14.6	1.32	15.8	16.2	-0.48
Blake Wesley	37	37	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.16	-17	18	-35	15.1	15.1	-0.04	16.2	16.0	0.21
Dominick Barlow	33	32	-0.51	1.01	-1.52	0.02	-18	19	-37	16.2	14.5	1.67	16.4	15.9	0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 79, LAC 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.85,0.91,1	92.2%
SAC 103, OKC 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.29,0.32,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.74,1	92.0%
DET 81, ORL 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.66,0.53,0.79,0.85,0.99,1	91.6%