NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	81		Excitement	6.5 [288]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +27.0%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	5.3 [207]		LVP	Jud Buechler (DET): -19.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.09	0.08	-0.07	18	64%	0.31	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.06
Jerome Williams	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	62%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Eric Montross	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	9	58%	-0.05	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.08
Grant Hill	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.17,-0.21,-0.16,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.18	-0.03	-0.02	18	44%	0.05	7	-0.24	5	80%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	6	0%	-0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.07	0.21	0.00	18	63%	0.30	2	-0.03	7	86%	-0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	10	45%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	14	61%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	60%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	9	54%	0.00	3	-0.07	6	50%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	26.2	19.8	30.0	2.7	35.3	138.7
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.1%

DET -1.6%

ORL +8.5%

ORL +21.8%

DET -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	18.3	16.7	15.8	100.0	104.8	99.6
season	16.6	16.1		101.4	98.0
opponent	15.6	16.1		95.7	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.9	16.0	18.6	19.8	18.3
ORL	17.1	17.5	14.3	18.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	57	59	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.08	5	-12	17	18.5	17.7	0.74	16.4	17.3	-0.87
Eric Montross	40	41	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-7	7	18.3	18.2	0.15	15.4	17.8	-2.40
Jerry Stackhouse	43	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-7	7	18.6	17.9	0.66	17.1	16.2	0.86
Jerome Williams	52	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-6	5	18.9	17.1	1.87	18.2	13.8	4.44
Jud Buechler	33	35	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	0	-7	17.6	18.7	-1.07	15.7	17.4	-1.73
Joe Dumars	58	60	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.28	-9	2	-11	17.9	19.2	-1.26	16.2	17.7	-1.52
Grant Hill	69	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.36	-9	2	-11	17.6	22.4	-4.87	17.1	14.4	2.70
Don Reid	53	54	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.25	-14	7	-21	18.8	17.3	1.51	16.6	16.8	-0.26

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	43	41	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.28	15	-8	23	18.0	15.3	2.68	18.5	18.0	0.49
Matt Harpring	66	64	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.29	11	-4	15	16.7	16.7	0.00	17.9	19.6	-1.67
Nick Anderson	44	43	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-2	11	17.5	15.7	1.75	18.9	17.6	1.35
Anfernee Hardaway	73	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	4	-1	16.6	17.2	-0.59	18.3	18.1	0.21
Darrell Armstrong	61	58	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	4	-1	15.8	19.0	-3.27	18.6	17.4	1.17
Bo Outlaw	20	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	8	-9	16.7	16.6	0.11	15.7	19.1	-3.38
B.J. Armstrong	9	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	14	-21	18.7	16.4	2.24	15.1	18.7	-3.56
Ike Austin	40	39	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	13	-19	15.4	17.8	-2.42	18.1	18.5	-0.38
Horace Grant	45	43	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.04	-7	14	-21	16.0	17.4	-1.39	18.7	17.7	1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.66,0.53,0.79,0.85,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 90, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.41,0.39,0.62,0.84,0.84,0.98,1	92.3%
CLE 98, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.72,0.97,0.92,1	92.0%
DEN 112, NYK 119	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.25,0.13,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.3,0.35,0.46,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.91,1	92.0%