NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	118		Excitement	8.9 [163]		MVP	Grant Williams (DAL): +44.5%
Dallas Mavericks	124		Comeback	5.8 [571]		LVP	Gordon Hayward (CHA): -22.0%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMelo Ball	0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,0.04,-0.01,0.05,0,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.35	0.10	0.26	0.01	23	61%	0.50	3	-0.15	3	100%	0.02
Nick Richards	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	7	86%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Williams	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.05	0.03	8	86%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.05
P.J. Washington	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.04	-0.01	15	59%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Theo Maledon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryce McGowens	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ish Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JT Thor	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	12	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gordon Hayward	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22	-0.06	-0.15	0.01	23	40%	-0.20	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.09

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.45	0.45	0.19	0.27	0.01	9	95%	0.45	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.10	0.19	-0.03	7	64%	0.31	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Dereck Lively II	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	9	75%	0.16	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Luka Doncic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	19	51%	0.17	4	-0.13	7	86%	0.01
Dante Exum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	17	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.07	14	56%	0.05	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	29.6	15.3	31.3	2.4	35.6	140.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.5%

DAL +20.4%

CHA -0.7%

CHA -4.9%

CHA -8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	DAL	NBA	CHA	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	13.7	14.5	113.5	120.4	113.9
season	14.8	14.3		108.3	116.0
opponent	14.5	14.5		113.8	118.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.0	14.1	15.1	13.5	14.1
DAL	14.8	13.6	13.7	12.7	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Washington	71	71	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-14	22	14.7	12.8	1.88	14.2	12.6	1.59
Bryce McGowens	20	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-7	8	16.1	13.7	2.50	14.1	13.6	0.57
Ish Smith	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-2	-2	12.0	14.3	-2.29	14.7	13.6	1.10
Nick Richards	45	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	15.1	13.4	1.64	13.4	13.9	-0.57
Theo Maledon	46	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	1	-8	14.8	13.6	1.16	13.5	13.8	-0.27
Mark Williams	59	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-5	4	13.4	15.1	-1.64	13.9	13.4	0.57
LaMelo Ball	85	85	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-7	8	14.2	13.8	0.42	13.3	15.4	-2.06
Gordon Hayward	75	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	13.3	16.3	-2.97	13.5	14.1	-0.62
JT Thor	33	33	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	4	-14	13.6	14.4	-0.77	13.5	13.8	-0.30
Brandon Miller	79	78	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.33	-9	3	-12	13.8	15.1	-1.30	13.8	13.5	0.28

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway Jr.	69	70	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	5	-4	13.7	13.6	0.11	14.2	14.0	0.20
Kyrie Irving	73	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.15	8	-2	10	13.6	13.8	-0.20	13.8	15.0	-1.20
Luka Doncic	79	81	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	3	0	13.7	13.7	-0.08	13.9	15.0	-1.11
Jaden Hardy	31	31	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-3	12	13.0	14.0	-0.94	15.1	13.7	1.37
Dereck Lively II	70	70	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.29	1	5	-4	13.4	14.2	-0.81	14.5	13.5	0.99
Grant Williams	68	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	4	-2	14.1	12.8	1.35	13.5	15.4	-1.92
Josh Green	49	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.19	2	4	-2	13.7	13.7	0.05	14.9	13.4	1.49
Dwight Powell	31	31	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	4	-2	15.1	13.1	2.01	14.6	13.9	0.64
Derrick Jones Jr.	39	40	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	3	0	12.7	14.3	-1.52	13.3	14.7	-1.36
Dante Exum	6	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	7	-8	14.2	13.7	0.51	16.5	14.0	2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 86, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.81,0.79,0.97,0.98,1	92.4%
BOS 93, CLE 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.47,0.54,0.43,0.57,0.71,0.73,0.53,0.71,0.54,0.53,0.72,0.67,0.96,1	92.4%
PHX 102, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.54,0.47,0.71,0.85,0.87,1	92.3%