NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	102		Excitement	7.3 [374]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +33.8%
Detroit Pistons	109		Comeback	8.7 [291]		LVP	Boris Diaw (PHX): -17.1%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.28	0.26	0.05	0.03	16	82%	0.28	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Raja Bell	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.03	0.02	7	86%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	40%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Brian Grant	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	6	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17	-0.03	-0.14	-0.00	9	62%	0.03	6	-0.20	8	50%	-0.11

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.11,0.16,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.34	0.34	0.17	0.18	0.01	23	67%	0.52	3	-0.18	6	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.33	0.33	0.15	0.20	0.02	14	77%	0.35	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.14
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	7	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	16	47%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	10	48%	-0.03	3	-0.11	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.0	29.4	16.8	25.5	3.6	40.0	145.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +51.4%

PHX -13.1%

DET +18.1%

DET +0.1%

PHX -6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DET	NBA	PHX	DET	NBA
this game	14.2	17.5	15.6	112.1	119.8	104.4
season	13.8	16.9		110.2	108.3
opponent	15.8	16.1		101.4	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.0	14.2	16.6	14.2	14.2
DET	19.3	17.1	18.6	15.2	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	27	28	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-10	13	12.8	14.8	-2.00	17.7	17.3	0.37
Tim Thomas	39	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	-2	-3	14.6	13.9	0.66	18.1	17.0	1.11
Brian Grant	37	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-8	9	14.0	14.3	-0.27	17.4	17.5	-0.05
Steve Nash	66	66	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-7	7	14.8	12.7	2.08	17.3	18.0	-0.69
Eddie House	25	25	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.16	-7	0	-7	12.7	14.8	-2.08	18.0	17.3	0.69
Raja Bell	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-1	-5	14.8	12.0	2.76	17.2	18.5	-1.35
Shawn Marion	74	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	2	-11	14.3	13.8	0.45	17.6	16.6	1.00
Boris Diaw	63	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.49	0	-7	7	13.7	15.2	-1.48	17.7	17.0	0.70
Leandro Barbosa	52	50	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.24	-12	5	-17	14.4	13.9	0.46	16.7	18.4	-1.65

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	69	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-7	21	17.3	18.0	-0.65	14.0	14.9	-0.87
Richard Hamilton	68	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-7	21	17.2	18.1	-0.84	14.4	13.5	0.85
Chauncey Billups	75	74	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.24	12	-5	17	17.0	19.7	-2.70	14.8	11.5	3.34
Tayshaun Prince	78	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-2	11	17.0	20.2	-3.23	14.6	12.0	2.55
Rasheed Wallace	74	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	4	-1	16.9	19.8	-2.83	14.4	13.3	1.17
Antonio McDyess	39	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	10	-13	18.7	16.5	2.24	14.1	14.3	-0.15
Maurice Evans	13	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	9	-11	20.2	17.0	3.23	12.0	14.6	-2.55
Lindsey Hunter	12	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	12	-17	19.7	17.1	2.64	10.0	14.9	-4.88
Tony Delk	27	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.09	-7	14	-21	18.3	17.1	1.19	14.0	14.3	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.54,0.47,0.71,0.85,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.28,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.92,1	91.9%
DET 95, UTA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.46,0.78,0.84,1	91.8%
POR 85, MEM 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.25,0.42,0.26,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.39,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.84,1	91.5%