NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	8.6 [211]		MVP	Dante Exum (DAL): +38.3%
Dallas Mavericks	118		Comeback	3.3 [330]		LVP	Jaden Hardy (DAL): -15.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Anderson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.07	0.00	10	58%	0.12	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Duncan Robinson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	7	64%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08	0.12	-0.03	0.02	30	58%	0.16	3	-0.08	9	78%	-0.00
Pelle Larsson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0	0.04	-0.04	0.01	14	57%	0.08	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Davion Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.01	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.09	7	57%	-0.03
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	11	27%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dante Exum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.24	0.14	0.00	13	93%	0.40	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	7	75%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kessler Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	12	62%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	7	69%	0.14	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Kylor Kelley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Christie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	19	50%	0.13	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	13	58%	0.16	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.02
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	56%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	8	10%	-0.16	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	27.7	15.3	28.4	1.8	31.2	130.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +53.4%

MIA -4.7%

DAL +2.2%

DAL +2.8%

MIA -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.8	14.4	117.7	120.4	113.1
season	14.9	14.3		111.9	113.3
opponent	14.4	14.6		114.4	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.4	12.2	14.7	15.2	13.8
DAL	15.4	15.9	14.7	17.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Anderson	56	58	0.34	-0.84	1.17	-0.02	12	-17	29	13.2	14.8	-1.61	15.6	16.2	-0.66
Duncan Robinson	41	41	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.11	9	-14	23	13.6	14.0	-0.39	15.0	16.5	-1.52
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	46	46	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-4	3	13.8	13.9	-0.06	16.5	15.3	1.21
Pelle Larsson	19	20	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	7	-19	15.3	13.5	1.85	14.3	16.2	-1.93
Alec Burks	56	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.36	-2	-3	1	13.6	14.1	-0.50	15.3	16.6	-1.25
Davion Mitchell	74	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	5	-15	14.2	12.5	1.67	16.9	12.7	4.14
Nikola Jovic	50	50	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	1	-7	14.1	13.6	0.47	15.4	16.3	-0.85
Kel'el Ware	62	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.33	-7	2	-9	14.1	13.4	0.74	16.8	14.1	2.72
Tyler Herro	76	79	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.44	-8	3	-11	13.5	15.0	-1.54	15.4	17.6	-2.16

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kessler Edwards	83	81	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.38	10	-5	15	15.5	17.5	-1.92	13.7	14.8	-1.15
Max Christie	79	79	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.44	4	1	3	15.7	16.2	-0.46	13.6	14.7	-1.06
Naji Marshall	68	67	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.48	0	5	-5	15.1	17.6	-2.49	14.1	13.2	0.90
Dante Exum	48	47	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.16	8	-3	11	16.8	14.9	1.87	13.5	14.1	-0.59
Jaden Hardy	40	39	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	1	3	14.4	16.8	-2.47	14.5	13.4	1.06
Spencer Dinwiddie	72	72	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.33	-4	9	-13	16.6	13.7	2.92	13.5	14.7	-1.22
Brandon Williams	51	48	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.13	7	-2	9	15.3	16.4	-1.17	14.2	13.4	0.79
Kylor Kelley	5	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	6	-7	15.4	15.9	-0.46	16.2	13.7	2.50
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	44	42	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	8	-11	17.5	14.5	2.94	13.6	14.0	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.54,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.62,0.89,0.96,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 103, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.71,0.5,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.4,0.61,0.79,0.97,1,1	92.2%
CHI 80, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.89,0.96,1	91.9%
DEN 95, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.58,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.53,0.79,0.99,1,1	91.7%