NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	6.7 [475]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +36.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	107		Comeback	2.9 [565]		LVP	Metta World Peace (HOU): -9.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Von Wafer	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.10	-0.00	13	64%	0.23	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Yao Ming	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	6	65%	0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	5	56%	0.08	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0	0.15	-0.01	0.14	12	88%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.04
Shane Battier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Luis Scola	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.09
Carl Landry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.10	-0.01	20	45%	-0.00	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.23	0.13	0.01	27	64%	0.36	0	0.00	12	83%	0.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.05	0.00	19	59%	0.16	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.04	4	92%	0.12	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	4	40%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.02	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.01	9	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.0	1.8	31.0	15.6	26.9	1.8	44.1	155.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +33.5%

POR +1.0%

POR +3.5%

POR +12.6%

HOU -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	POR	NBA	HOU	POR	NBA
this game	16.2	15.5	15.5	113.2	117.6	106.4
season	16.3	16.7		105.9	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.2		105.8	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.5	15.7	19.8	13.7	16.2
POR	15.5	15.7	17.1	14.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	40	39	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-7	10	14.7	17.3	-2.63	14.4	16.3	-1.86
Charles Hayes	24	23	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.04	4	-8	12	18.1	15.5	2.65	15.7	15.4	0.36
Carl Landry	26	25	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-7	10	16.7	16.0	0.78	16.1	15.2	0.84
Dikembe Mutombo	2	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-2	0	28.0	15.9	12.09	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Shane Battier	64	64	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-5	6	15.1	18.7	-3.59	15.7	14.9	0.83
Von Wafer	49	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	1	-6	17.0	15.2	1.83	16.2	14.6	1.67
Yao Ming	58	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-3	2	15.6	17.2	-1.63	16.8	13.1	3.72
Metta World Peace	69	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.44	-4	0	-4	16.6	15.0	1.61	14.7	17.9	-3.21
Aaron Brooks	56	57	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.42	-6	2	-8	16.2	16.1	0.10	14.9	16.4	-1.55
Luis Scola	67	68	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.36	-13	9	-22	16.3	15.9	0.35	15.1	16.5	-1.35

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	57	57	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-5	14	14.5	17.1	-2.53	14.8	18.4	-3.57
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	84	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-4	12	15.1	19.6	-4.55	16.4	13.3	3.13
Brandon Roy	79	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	-1	6	15.1	18.1	-3.01	16.6	13.5	3.08
Steve Blake	74	73	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.46	-1	5	-6	15.5	15.5	0.00	16.1	16.4	-0.27
Greg Oden	19	22	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	-3	10	16.4	15.2	1.20	16.5	16.1	0.43
Joel Przybilla	71	66	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	6	-8	16.7	11.2	5.48	16.9	14.2	2.78
Sergio Rodriguez	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	3	-2	18.8	15.2	3.60	12.3	16.4	-4.11
Nicolas Batum	27	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	8	-12	16.5	15.0	1.49	18.7	15.1	3.54
Rudy Fernandez	39	41	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.12	-3	7	-10	14.6	16.1	-1.50	14.4	17.7	-3.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.71,0.5,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.4,0.61,0.79,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 80, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.89,0.96,1	91.7%
DET 85, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.29,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.39,0.62,0.54,0.94,0.99,1	91.6%
ORL 96, SAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.85,0.99,1,1	91.3%