NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	124		Excitement	8.3 [245]		MVP	Matas Buzelis (CHI): +34.6%
Chicago Bulls	133		Comeback	15.3 [64]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -15.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.12	-0.02	17	59%	0.29	3	-0.11	5	40%	-0.06
Nikola Jovic	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	10	91%	0.24	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.01	8	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Alec Burks	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.06	0.01	12	71%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.03	0,0,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	12	21%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.16	-0.02	-0.15	-0.02	15	56%	0.14	6	-0.29	11	91%	0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matas Buzelis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.26	0.11	0.02	10	120%	0.38	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.17	0.04	0.03	11	84%	0.21	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.09	0.02	14	67%	0.22	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.03	0.12	-0.02	13	43%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Coby White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.05	0.03	16	61%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Julian Phillips	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	28%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.7	27.0	14.8	26.2	2.3	34.5	130.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +43.2%

MIA -12.9%

MIA -11.6%

CHI +33.1%

MIA -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.1	12.8	14.4	120.4	127.9	113.1
season	14.9	13.2		111.9	112.4
opponent	14.5	14.6		114.2	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	14.7	15.3	15.2	15.1
CHI	11.6	15.3	11.9	12.5	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	46	45	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-13	17	14.6	15.5	-0.83	12.4	13.0	-0.62
Alec Burks	38	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-7	5	15.2	15.0	0.20	13.6	12.3	1.30
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	46	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-3	-3	15.5	14.8	0.71	13.0	12.5	0.46
Duncan Robinson	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	-1	-7	13.8	15.5	-1.72	11.0	13.4	-2.31
Tyler Herro	80	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-8	7	14.4	17.3	-2.91	12.9	12.4	0.46
Terry Rozier	60	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-2	-5	16.3	13.4	2.82	12.5	13.2	-0.73
Nikola Jovic	75	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	15.5	14.0	1.49	13.0	12.0	1.08
Bam Adebayo	77	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.36	-9	0	-9	14.6	16.6	-1.99	13.3	11.4	1.91
Kel'el Ware	66	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.30	-11	2	-13	15.4	14.5	0.94	12.3	13.6	-1.39

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Williams	69	67	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.19	18	-9	27	12.4	13.5	-1.07	14.9	15.5	-0.59
Josh Giddey	65	65	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.51	7	2	5	12.7	12.8	-0.07	14.9	15.4	-0.45
Coby White	71	70	0.55	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-2	13	12.8	12.6	0.17	14.5	16.3	-1.74
Lonzo Ball	66	66	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	3	3	12.3	13.6	-1.26	13.9	17.1	-3.20
Jalen Smith	30	29	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	1	7	12.9	12.7	0.26	17.7	14.1	3.67
Nikola Vucevic	74	74	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	8	-7	12.7	12.9	-0.26	14.1	17.7	-3.67
Ayo Dosunmu	62	61	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.00	3	6	-3	12.4	13.2	-0.78	15.1	15.0	0.15
Julian Phillips	9	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	14	-19	16.3	12.4	3.92	20.3	14.6	5.75
Jevon Carter	9	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	14	-19	16.3	12.4	3.92	20.3	14.6	5.75
Matas Buzelis	65	65	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.24	1	8	-7	12.9	12.5	0.34	15.7	14.0	1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.52,0.45,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.27,0.3,0.47,0.33,0.53,0.71,0.86,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.78,0.68,0.74,1	91.8%
CHH 78, CHI 76	0.5,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.16,0.28,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.26,0.35,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.86,1	91.3%
LAC 113, VAN 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.63,0.9,0.92,1	91.0%