NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	9.5 [79]		MVP	Brian Cardinal (GSW): +22.6%
Golden State Warriors	108		Comeback	5.4 [373]		LVP	Marquis Daniels (DAL): -33.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	12	48%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Josh Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.07	-0.01	15	74%	0.32	6	-0.35	9	89%	0.03
Shawn Bradley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	4	54%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Steve Nash	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.21	-0.05	-0.16	-0.00	12	44%	-0.16	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,-0.25	0.01	-0.26	0.00	14	50%	-0.25	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.21,-0.33	-0.11	-0.26	-0.03	25	40%	-0.16	3	-0.17	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.10	0.01	7	100%	0.25	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.02,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.12	0.00	15	53%	0.14	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	17	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.06
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	21	52%	0.10	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.11	-0.01	9	44%	0.04	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.9	1.8	26.2	8.7	28.0	1.7	35.8	136.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +56.9%

DAL -11.7%

DAL -21.7%

GSW +19.7%

GSW +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.9	15.6	15.7	109.2	111.3	100.5
season	14.6	16.1		109.2	100.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		101.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	11.8	14.3	14.0	15.8	13.9
GSW	15.4	15.7	16.6	14.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	37	36	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.00	3	-4	7	13.0	14.4	-1.40	15.6	15.7	-0.15
Travis Best	6	6	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-2	3	15.8	13.8	2.06	10.8	16.0	-5.13
Eduardo Najera	13	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	4	-9	15.7	13.6	2.07	15.4	15.7	-0.31
Shawn Bradley	32	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-1	1	14.2	13.7	0.52	15.2	15.8	-0.60
Antawn Jamison	65	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	3	-7	14.2	13.2	1.03	15.4	16.1	-0.77
Antoine Walker	79	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-2	3	13.3	16.3	-2.93	15.6	15.9	-0.37
Steve Nash	76	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.58	1	-2	3	13.6	14.8	-1.19	16.1	14.2	1.86
Dirk Nowitzki	92	91	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.56	0	-1	1	14.0	13.0	0.96	15.9	11.8	4.07
Marquis Daniels	90	90	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.51	-2	1	-3	14.2	11.0	3.16	15.8	13.1	2.70

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Speedy Claxton	62	62	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.41	14	-13	27	14.9	16.9	-2.02	14.6	12.6	1.99
Brian Cardinal	57	58	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.42	11	-10	21	14.8	16.9	-2.17	15.1	12.2	2.91
Calbert Cheaney	52	52	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.54	6	-5	11	15.5	15.8	-0.28	14.9	12.8	2.06
Jason Richardson	87	88	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.44	5	-4	9	15.8	14.4	1.39	14.1	12.4	1.67
Clifford Robinson	68	70	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.49	-5	6	-11	15.5	16.1	-0.65	12.5	17.4	-4.84
Troy Murphy	55	56	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.11	2	-1	3	15.1	16.3	-1.16	15.2	12.1	3.07
Adonal Foyle	29	28	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	6	-11	16.9	15.1	1.73	12.4	14.5	-2.11
Mike Dunleavy	42	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	9	-17	16.4	15.1	1.37	12.4	15.1	-2.72
Mickael Pietrus	33	33	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.07	-15	16	-31	17.6	14.7	2.92	12.4	14.6	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.78,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 97, UTA 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.26,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.54,0.69,0.72,1	92.4%
LAL 95, ATL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.14,0.24,0.39,0.47,0.64,0.45,0.74,1	92.2%
ATL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.58,1	92.0%