NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	91		Excitement	8.8 [169]		MVP	Tyronn Lue (ATL): +17.7%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	3.8 [603]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -48.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.18	0.10	0.09	0.01	14	71%	0.29	2	-0.11	7	100%	0.04
Josh Childress	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	7	70%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.07
Predrag Drobnjak	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donta Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.14	-0.07	-0.01	8	29%	-0.16	1	-0.04	8	37%	-0.06
Obinna Ekezie	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28	-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	9	38%	-0.13	4	-0.15	8	100%	0.07
Al Harrington	-0.49	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.35,-0.49	-0.16	-0.35	-0.02	21	46%	-0.10	7	-0.39	4	75%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.12	-0.00	14	66%	0.22	2	-0.06	13	85%	0.08
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	62%	0.05	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.08
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Reed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.2,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	17	52%	0.02	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	3	37%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	5	17%	-0.06	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	0.01	10	30%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.5	28.3	15.8	28.3	2.5	40.3	143.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +19.4%

ATL -6.3%

BOS +42.3%

BOS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	BOS	NBA	ATL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.4	13.5	15.5	93.8	99.0	104.0
season	15.6	14.4		98.1	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.1		104.1	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.7	15.6	16.0	17.1	16.4
BOS	12.1	13.2	15.3	13.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	44	44	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-5	6	17.7	15.3	2.38	13.5	13.4	0.06
Donta Smith	21	21	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-4	4	13.0	17.3	-4.29	13.2	13.5	-0.36
Jason Collier	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-4	4	11.0	16.6	-5.59	13.7	13.5	0.20
Predrag Drobnjak	41	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-4	4	14.9	17.5	-2.61	13.7	13.3	0.40
Boris Diaw	8	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	1	-6	16.0	16.4	-0.39	12.9	13.5	-0.64
Royal Ivey	18	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	0	-4	14.4	16.8	-2.35	14.9	13.1	1.75
Josh Childress	84	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-7	10	16.5	15.2	1.39	13.0	15.7	-2.68
Tyronn Lue	79	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.42	0	-4	4	16.8	14.4	2.35	13.1	14.9	-1.75
Obinna Ekezie	52	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	0	-4	18.0	14.5	3.45	13.3	13.7	-0.41
Al Harrington	76	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.47	-2	-2	0	17.0	13.9	3.13	13.9	11.7	2.17
Tom Gugliotta	58	57	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	5	-14	15.5	17.7	-2.18	13.6	13.2	0.40

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Davis	75	75	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.33	12	-8	20	13.2	14.6	-1.41	15.9	18.0	-2.06
Gary Payton	63	63	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	1	2	13.0	14.3	-1.23	17.0	15.1	1.96
Antoine Walker	66	66	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.38	3	1	2	13.3	13.8	-0.48	17.4	14.2	3.23
Paul Pierce	76	77	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.45	-1	5	-6	13.3	14.1	-0.80	16.6	15.4	1.21
Raef LaFrentz	45	46	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	2	0	13.5	13.4	0.12	17.9	15.0	2.95
Marcus Banks	13	11	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	0	4	14.0	13.4	0.61	16.5	16.3	0.11
Mark Blount	48	48	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	3	-2	13.9	13.0	0.94	15.6	17.1	-1.42
Al Jefferson	30	30	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	3	-2	13.8	13.3	0.48	14.5	17.2	-2.65
Justin Reed	0	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	4	-4	0.0	13.5	-13.47	2.0	16.5	-14.51
Delonte West	33	35	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	3	-2	14.3	13.0	1.23	14.7	17.3	-2.53
Tony Allen	31	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.11	-6	10	-16	13.6	13.4	0.17	16.1	16.5	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 85, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.32,0.21,0.35,0.34,0.55,0.45,0.56,0.74,1	93.0%
ATL 75, ORL 79	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.58,1	92.5%
CHI 75, LAC 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.35,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.35,0.38,0.46,0.64,0.43,0.73,1	92.2%