NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	122		Excitement	4.0 [243]		MVP	Christian Braun (DEN): +17.7%
Denver Nuggets	135		Comeback	1.0 [214]		LVP	Julian Strawther (DEN): -3.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	0.01	0.05	12	83%	0.12	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	21	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.12	0.00	0.09	10	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Nikola Jovic	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	7	69%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	13	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	18	48%	0.02	3	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.02	0.00	9	87%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.01	15	70%	0.16	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	-0.00	-0.00	17	70%	0.20	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.18	-0.01	0.08	13	91%	0.17	5	-0.08	7	100%	0.02
Peyton Watson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.00	0.04	11	73%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	117%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	29.0	14.5	23.8	1.8	35.2	130.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +43.7%

DEN +6.4%

MIA -0.7%

MIA -2.1%

DEN +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	13.8	14.4	118.4	131.1	112.0
season	14.7	13.7		110.3	115.0
opponent	14.8	14.6		113.3	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	12.6	14.0	13.2	14.2
DEN	12.9	13.1	14.2	15.1	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	28	28	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-21	23	14.0	14.9	-0.98	13.4	13.7	-0.35
Thomas Bryant	16	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-19	19	12.6	15.1	-2.54	15.1	13.3	1.81
Josh Richardson	46	46	-0.09	-0.40	0.31	-0.12	1	-20	21	12.8	16.7	-3.92	14.2	12.9	1.27
Kel'el Ware	5	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	-7	1	18.2	14.0	4.24	9.5	14.0	-4.47
Jimmy Butler	13	13	-0.18	-0.31	0.13	0.11	-10	-9	-1	18.7	13.9	4.79	13.5	13.7	-0.20
Nikola Jovic	40	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	-12	5	15.4	14.0	1.40	14.9	12.5	2.38
Pelle Larsson	31	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	-5	-9	14.5	14.7	-0.17	11.7	14.7	-2.95
Tyler Herro	71	71	-0.31	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-10	1	14.5	15.0	-0.45	13.7	13.5	0.20
Haywood Highsmith	59	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	-10	1	13.9	16.1	-2.16	13.6	13.6	0.02
Bam Adebayo	65	67	-0.38	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	-15	-4	-11	14.9	13.9	0.96	13.7	13.2	0.54
Terry Rozier	56	56	-0.60	0.11	-0.71	0.22	-28	9	-37	15.9	12.3	3.52	13.2	14.5	-1.34

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	83	83	0.67	-0.17	0.83	-0.04	24	-13	37	13.5	15.3	-1.80	14.7	12.9	1.80
Jamal Murray	71	72	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.10	26	-15	41	13.5	14.5	-0.99	14.9	13.0	1.87
Michael Porter Jr.	76	76	0.55	-0.04	0.59	-0.10	22	-11	33	13.6	14.3	-0.69	14.9	12.6	2.36
Christian Braun	74	72	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-1	13	13.4	14.8	-1.38	14.7	13.5	1.27
Peyton Watson	69	69	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-1	13	13.6	14.3	-0.75	15.0	13.1	1.86
Russell Westbrook	52	51	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	16	-21	13.9	13.7	0.29	13.5	15.3	-1.74
Julian Strawther	49	50	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.31	-14	25	-39	14.8	12.8	1.97	13.6	15.2	-1.64
Hunter Tyson	23	20	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.20	-12	23	-35	14.8	13.5	1.33	11.3	15.1	-3.79
Zeke Nnaji	8	7	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	21	-31	16.7	13.5	3.20	10.6	14.7	-4.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, TOR 107	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.62,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.98,1	95.9%
WAS 82, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
LAC 92, PHI 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%