NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	98		Excitement	7.0 [82]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +26.6%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	2.1 [133]		LVP	Malik Beasley (DET): -16.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.24	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.10	0.00	10	74%	0.27	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.05
Jalen Duren	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	6	83%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	18	62%	0.07	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.02
Isaiah Stewart	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.03	-0.00	3	25%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Simone Fontecchio	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	9	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tobias Harris	-0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	11	39%	-0.01	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jaden Ivey	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.02	-0.04	0.07	16	53%	-0.01	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	12	12%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.16	0.12	0.01	11	70%	0.27	0	0.00	11	82%	0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	10	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	44%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.03	16	61%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	44%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	0.00	20	45%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovic	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.7	27.5	15.5	30.3	2.5	31.5	138.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.8%

MIA +3.9%

DET -9.8%

MIA +17.7%

DET -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	15.0	14.4	100.0	108.2	112.0
season	14.6	14.8		110.0	111.3
opponent	14.4	14.6		110.8	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.5	15.9	15.1	12.0	14.3
MIA	14.8	13.4	15.5	16.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tobias Harris	65	67	0.12	-0.59	0.71	-0.06	6	-15	21	14.7	14.3	0.37	15.3	13.3	1.99
Malik Beasley	37	38	0.00	-0.47	0.47	0.00	0	-9	9	15.5	13.9	1.54	13.7	15.5	-1.88
Jalen Duren	49	51	-0.04	-0.42	0.38	-0.10	2	-11	13	14.6	14.6	-0.02	14.8	14.6	0.18
Tim Hardaway Jr.	58	60	-0.16	-0.30	0.14	-0.19	1	-10	11	14.4	14.8	-0.42	15.2	13.8	1.47
Jaden Ivey	59	58	-0.24	-0.22	-0.02	-0.01	-8	-1	-7	14.7	14.4	0.29	13.6	16.9	-3.35
Isaiah Stewart	40	39	-0.42	-0.04	-0.38	-0.10	-11	2	-13	14.6	14.6	0.02	14.6	14.8	-0.18
Cade Cunningham	62	64	-0.48	0.02	-0.50	-0.25	-8	-1	-7	14.2	15.5	-1.32	15.7	12.3	3.48
Simone Fontecchio	45	45	-0.49	0.02	-0.52	-0.17	-11	2	-13	14.1	15.0	-0.91	15.1	14.4	0.73
Ronald Holland II	30	28	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.14	-16	8	-24	14.8	14.1	0.70	13.5	15.6	-2.11

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	43	44	0.69	-0.23	0.92	0.19	17	-8	25	14.7	14.8	-0.05	14.1	15.0	-0.98
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	58	57	0.62	-0.15	0.77	0.15	16	-7	23	15.0	14.3	0.72	14.3	15.0	-0.68
Duncan Robinson	34	34	0.55	-0.09	0.64	0.11	15	-6	21	14.6	14.8	-0.16	14.7	14.5	0.19
Thomas Bryant	28	28	0.44	0.02	0.42	0.12	11	-2	13	14.1	15.0	-0.98	13.2	15.2	-1.97
Jimmy Butler	62	61	0.42	0.05	0.37	0.16	9	0	9	14.3	15.6	-1.30	14.8	14.0	0.77
Alec Burks	17	18	0.09	0.37	-0.28	-0.03	4	5	-1	12.4	15.3	-2.88	16.3	14.1	2.15
Bam Adebayo	62	61	0.02	0.44	-0.42	0.08	-2	11	-13	15.0	14.1	0.98	15.2	13.2	1.97
Terry Rozier	59	58	-0.09	0.55	-0.64	0.09	-6	15	-21	15.0	14.3	0.69	14.5	14.7	-0.28
Tyler Herro	59	58	-0.09	0.55	-0.64	0.09	-6	15	-21	15.0	14.3	0.69	14.5	14.7	-0.28
Nikola Jovic	28	26	-0.34	0.80	-1.14	0.05	-13	22	-35	15.7	14.3	1.36	14.5	14.6	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.66,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.69,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 111, BKN 121	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.79,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.2%
DEN 114, PHX 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.8,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.99,1	92.1%
OKC 98, CLE 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	91.8%