NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	8.8 [166]		MVP	Kyrie Irving (DAL): +44.5%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	9.3 [138]		LVP	P.J. Washington (DAL): -10.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.25	0.04	0.22	-0.00	20	49%	0.29	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	8	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08	-0.06	0.12	-0.02	16	43%	0.14	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Christian Braun	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	83%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	61%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Zeke Nnaji	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.05	0.04	13	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Justin Holiday	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.44	0.44	-0.01	0.44	-0.01	23	50%	0.52	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.16	0.02	27	58%	0.33	3	-0.09	10	80%	-0.04
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dereck Lively II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	74%	0.11	3	-0.10	3	0%	-0.05
Dante Exum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	11	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	3	12%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	10	20%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.5	3.3	28.5	15.2	24.6	3.3	32.7	139.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +15.0%

DEN -6.2%

DAL +42.0%

DEN -5.0%

DAL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.4	14.5	109.4	110.3	113.9
season	15.0	14.3		116.2	115.6
opponent	14.6	14.6		113.6	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	17.0	14.9	15.3	15.5
DAL	11.1	14.5	14.5	18.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	25	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-4	6	15.7	15.4	0.34	12.6	15.0	-2.41
Aaron Gordon	66	66	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.44	12	-14	26	15.1	16.3	-1.21	14.9	13.2	1.70
Nikola Jokic	78	78	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.42	10	-12	22	15.2	16.7	-1.47	14.1	15.6	-1.49
Michael Porter Jr.	76	75	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.40	8	-10	18	15.1	16.7	-1.56	14.1	15.3	-1.21
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	64	63	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.41	7	-9	16	14.8	16.8	-2.02	14.9	13.4	1.58
Justin Holiday	16	17	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.03	-10	8	-18	17.2	15.1	2.14	14.1	14.4	-0.39
Zeke Nnaji	18	19	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	10	-22	16.7	15.2	1.47	15.6	14.1	1.49
Peyton Watson	30	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	12	-26	16.3	15.1	1.21	13.6	14.7	-1.13
Christian Braun	37	40	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	9	-20	16.1	15.1	1.04	14.0	14.7	-0.69
Jamal Murray	70	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	0	-2	15.6	15.1	0.48	15.0	12.8	2.15

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway Jr.	30	32	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.85	2	0	2	12.2	15.3	-3.11	15.1	15.7	-0.56
Derrick Jones Jr.	50	48	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.03	20	-18	38	14.9	13.9	0.99	15.8	15.1	0.65
P.J. Washington	64	60	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-5	12	14.6	14.0	0.58	15.6	15.2	0.48
Kyrie Irving	79	82	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-4	10	14.7	13.1	1.63	15.3	16.4	-1.12
Luka Doncic	82	80	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.45	-1	3	-4	14.8	11.9	2.97	15.2	16.8	-1.61
Maxi Kleber	40	43	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.34	-8	10	-18	14.1	14.5	-0.39	15.3	15.6	-0.39
Jaden Hardy	9	7	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	1	0	12.8	14.5	-1.77	15.1	15.5	-0.35
Daniel Gafford	49	48	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.53	13	-11	24	14.7	14.0	0.67	16.1	14.8	1.31
Dante Exum	36	35	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.15	-12	14	-26	13.6	14.9	-1.31	15.7	15.3	0.39
Dereck Lively II	46	45	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.24	-18	20	-38	14.5	14.3	0.14	15.3	15.6	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.79,0.78,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 116, POR 119	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.73,1	93.2%
DEN 89, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.81,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.82,1	92.7%
DEN 104, CLE 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.92,1	92.3%