NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	116		Excitement	8.6 [190]		MVP	Jerami Grant (POR): +21.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	119		Comeback	1.9 [146]		LVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): -18.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.06	0.01	13	81%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.12	0.02	0.15	0.05	16	63%	0.32	6	-0.21	11	64%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	7	79%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.32,0.24,0.04	0.13	-0.08	0.00	14	66%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Malik Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.19	-0.02	-0.15	0.01	23	50%	-0.05	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.16	0.00	14	56%	0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.08
Duop Reath	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.01	17	59%	0.12	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Walker	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	4	89%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Toumani Camara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scoot Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	11	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Anfernee Simons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.04	0.01	19	63%	0.37	3	-0.34	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	12	54%	0.08	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Matisse Thybulle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.4	25.5	16.3	24.5	3.4	44.9	143.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +50.4%

POR +2.8%

POR +9.9%

MIL -17.1%

POR +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	POR	NBA	MIL	POR	NBA
this game	14.0	15.2	14.5	117.2	121.4	113.9
season	14.3	14.8		117.0	106.9
opponent	14.5	14.3		116.2	114.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.3	16.8	14.4	11.9	14.0
POR	14.4	15.9	15.0	15.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	59	58	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.30	6	-9	15	14.0	13.9	0.08	15.8	14.5	1.30
Khris Middleton	70	70	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.37	7	-10	17	14.0	14.0	-0.05	15.7	14.2	1.49
Cameron Payne	16	15	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.03	-9	6	-15	15.3	13.7	1.57	15.1	15.3	-0.13
Giannis Antetokounmpo	80	81	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.44	6	-9	15	13.4	16.7	-3.32	14.7	17.9	-3.26
Damian Lillard	83	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.44	6	-9	15	13.7	15.3	-1.57	15.3	15.1	0.13
Brook Lopez	73	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-4	5	14.4	12.8	1.56	15.7	13.9	1.85
Pat Connaughton	31	29	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	7	-17	12.9	14.5	-1.60	15.3	15.2	0.14
Bobby Portis	45	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	8	-19	14.5	13.6	0.86	15.1	15.3	-0.20
Jae Crowder	38	38	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	8	-19	14.9	13.5	1.41	14.0	16.0	-2.08

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matisse Thybulle	39	39	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-10	23	14.8	15.6	-0.79	14.0	14.0	-0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	75	77	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-6	15	14.3	18.2	-3.83	14.1	13.5	0.58
Jerami Grant	74	75	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.33	2	1	1	15.7	13.7	2.03	14.4	12.8	1.54
Duop Reath	27	29	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	-10	23	14.3	15.6	-1.26	13.4	14.2	-0.78
Toumani Camara	45	47	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	3	-3	15.3	15.2	0.16	13.5	14.5	-0.97
Scoot Henderson	45	45	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	-2	7	15.5	15.0	0.53	13.6	14.3	-0.69
Deandre Ayton	71	70	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.43	-10	13	-23	15.6	14.3	1.26	14.2	13.4	0.78
Jabari Walker	38	37	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.09	-6	9	-15	13.7	16.2	-2.46	13.9	14.1	-0.17
Anfernee Simons	76	76	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.14	-11	14	-25	16.4	11.2	5.24	14.1	13.7	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 127, UTA 129	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.67,0.74,1	92.7%
VAN 91, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.73,0.81,0.92,0.77,0.85,1	92.6%
BOS 87, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.63,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.73,0.9,0.72,0.78,0.98,1	92.5%