NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	127		Excitement	8.2 [243]		MVP	Donovan Mitchell (UTA): +77.9%
Utah Jazz	129		Comeback	2.0 [636]		LVP	Jerami Grant (DEN): -12.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.56	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.6,0.56	0.40	0.21	0.05	31	75%	0.56	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.2,0.26	0.09	0.18	0.00	24	58%	0.31	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.05
Michael Porter Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.04	0.02	13	57%	0.13	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	10	32%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jerami Grant	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	0.01	-0.12	0.03	8	67%	0.01	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.5,0.78	0.78	0.27	0.57	0.06	27	71%	0.89	4	-0.11	18	94%	0.14
Mike Conley	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.22	0.15	0.01	13	81%	0.37	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.17	0.02	0.00	13	86%	0.30	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	8	85%	0.21	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Morgan	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.3	32.4	16.4	23.8	3.0	45.1	149.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +20.8%

UTA +47.9%

DEN -16.5%

DEN -5.8%

UTA +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.8	14.8	14.2	135.1	137.2	109.6
season	15.0	14.9		112.0	112.1
opponent	14.2	14.5		109.4	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.8	17.6	17.6	15.7	15.8
UTA	14.4	12.9	16.7	15.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Daniels	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-6	10	6.0	16.0	-10.03	0.5	15.1	-14.63
Mason Plumlee	14	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-1	0	20.1	15.1	5.00	15.9	14.6	1.33
Michael Porter Jr.	41	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.28	4	-6	10	17.8	14.3	3.44	15.0	14.7	0.25
Paul Millsap	72	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.25	-2	0	-2	15.2	17.9	-2.73	15.2	13.8	1.38
Jamal Murray	86	85	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.47	5	-7	12	15.5	18.9	-3.34	15.0	12.9	2.13
Monte Morris	72	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	3	-8	15.5	16.9	-1.36	14.2	16.8	-2.61
Jerami Grant	69	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	2	-6	15.5	16.7	-1.23	15.4	13.2	2.15
Torrey Craig	34	35	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	8	-18	17.5	14.9	2.59	14.4	15.1	-0.67
Nikola Jokic	80	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-1	0	15.1	20.1	-5.00	14.6	15.9	-1.33

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donovan Mitchell	76	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.42	5	-3	8	14.5	16.2	-1.74	15.3	18.4	-3.09
Joe Ingles	69	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-8	18	14.7	15.2	-0.46	15.4	16.8	-1.39
Rudy Gobert	79	77	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	0	2	14.7	15.5	-0.85	15.1	18.9	-3.74
Juwan Morgan	19	17	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	-1	4	14.7	14.9	-0.17	18.6	15.2	3.38
Mike Conley	65	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	4	-6	15.0	14.5	0.44	15.0	17.7	-2.75
Georges Niang	25	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	-6	14	13.4	15.3	-1.93	17.3	15.4	1.90
Royce O'Neale	74	77	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.50	-12	14	-26	15.0	14.1	0.85	15.2	18.5	-3.24
Tony Bradley	15	17	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	2	-2	15.5	14.7	0.85	18.9	15.1	3.74
Jordan Clarkson	48	49	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.05	-4	6	-10	15.9	13.7	2.12	17.7	13.8	3.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.67,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, VAN 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.87,1	92.9%
MIA 94, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.84,0.77,1	92.6%
ATL 108, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.79,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.79,0.77,0.53,1	92.5%