NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	7.5 [298]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +19.3%
Atlanta Hawks	97		Comeback	1.9 [890]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -25.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.14	0.20	-0.04	0.02	16	84%	0.20	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	90%	0.12	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Marcus Banks	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Chris Quinn	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	9	11%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.2,-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	0.03	20	55%	-0.04	4	-0.22	4	50%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.19	0.19	0.17	0.02	-0.01	27	67%	0.28	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	8	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	12	29%	-0.18	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	26.4	15.4	27.5	2.6	40.1	139.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +9.8%

ATL +11.6%

MIA -4.2%

ATL +28.5%

ATL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.2	15.4	104.4	107.8	105.7
season	16.0	15.4		99.0	104.2
opponent	15.7	15.4		107.2	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	17.2	19.0	14.3	16.8
ATL	13.2	13.5	15.3	19.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Banks	22	21	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.00	2	-5	7	16.7	16.8	-0.11	13.5	15.7	-2.17
Jason Williams	21	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	1	-5	17.0	16.8	0.18	13.4	15.7	-2.36
Chris Quinn	31	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	0	-3	18.6	15.9	2.75	15.4	15.1	0.29
Alexander Johnson	42	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.37	5	-8	13	16.3	17.2	-0.94	15.7	14.7	0.97
Mark Blount	48	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	5	-13	17.2	16.3	0.94	14.7	15.7	-0.97
Dwyane Wade	76	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-1	-1	16.3	19.4	-3.10	15.2	14.9	0.31
Ricky Davis	78	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.47	1	-4	5	16.6	18.2	-1.56	15.0	16.6	-1.61
Shawn Marion	81	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.43	-1	-2	1	16.6	18.6	-1.94	15.5	11.7	3.77
Daequan Cook	51	51	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	2	-7	17.0	16.5	0.53	16.2	13.8	2.37

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	85	84	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-2	7	15.3	13.8	1.47	16.9	15.2	1.76
Marvin Williams	60	57	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	2	-1	15.7	14.1	1.58	16.3	17.8	-1.49
Al Horford	54	52	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.34	1	2	-1	14.9	15.7	-0.84	17.1	16.5	0.58
Josh Smith	72	74	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	6	-9	14.1	19.4	-5.25	16.8	17.0	-0.23
Josh Childress	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.16	5	-2	7	15.3	14.9	0.40	17.0	16.5	0.50
Salim Stoudamire	24	24	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	-5	13	16.0	14.9	1.05	17.6	16.5	1.11
Mike Bibby	64	65	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	6	-9	15.3	14.8	0.54	16.7	17.1	-0.43
Zaza Pachulia	36	37	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	2	-1	15.7	14.9	0.84	16.9	16.8	0.09
Mario West	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	3	-3	0.0	15.2	-15.19	4.0	17.0	-12.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.84,0.77,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.0%
HOU 99, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.85,0.75,0.89,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.9%
VAN 92, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.59,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,1	92.9%