inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 94 Excitement7.5 [298] MVPJoe Johnson (ATL): +19.3%
Atlanta Hawks 97 Comeback1.9 [890] LVPDwyane Wade (MIA): -25.4%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Ricky Davis0.140,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.140.20-0.040.021684%0.202-0.0600%0.00
Alexander Johnson0.080,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.080.060.020.00290%0.121-0.04683%0.01
Jason Williams0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.010.010.00350%0.0200.0000%0.00
Mark Blount0.010,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.02-0.01-0.00954%0.041-0.03683%0.01
Marcus Banks-0.030,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.030.000.00333%-0.011-0.0200%0.00
Shawn Marion-0.050,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.03-0.02-0.001447%0.032-0.072100%0.01
Chris Quinn-0.120,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12-0.10-0.02-0.0050%-0.101-0.0200%0.00
Daequan Cook-0.210,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21-0.11-0.100.00911%-0.2100.0000%0.00
Dwyane Wade-0.250,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.2,-0.25-0.01-0.220.032055%-0.044-0.22450%-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Joe Johnson0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.190.190.170.02-0.012767%0.284-0.094100%0.04
Salim Stoudamire0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.060.060.030.030.00756%0.0600.00250%-0.01
Al Horford0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.030.030.020.020.00750%0.0300.00475%0.01
Zaza Pachulia0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.02-0.000.00367%0.0200.0000%0.00
Josh Smith0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.01,0.010.010.000.01-0.001150%0.041-0.04475%-0.00
Mario West00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Marvin Williams0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.02-0.050.03-0.00833%-0.0200.008100%0.06
Josh Childress0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.03-0.02-0.020.00558%0.032-0.06250%-0.02
Mike Bibby0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2-0.20-0.10-0.10-0.001229%-0.181-0.02450%-0.04
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game25.81.826.415.427.52.640.1139.6
league avg27.92.430.016.226.62.433.3140.1
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
ATL +9.8%
ATL +11.6%
MIA -4.2%
ATL +28.5%
ATL +4.4%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIAATLNBAMIAATLNBA
this game16.815.215.4104.4107.8105.7
season16.015.499.0104.2
opponent15.715.4107.2108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA16.817.219.014.316.8
ATL13.213.515.319.315.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Marcus Banks22210.06-0.560.61-0.002-5716.716.8-0.1113.515.7-2.17
Jason Williams2121-0.10-0.400.290.01-41-517.016.80.1813.415.7-2.36
Chris Quinn3132-0.17-0.330.16-0.08-30-318.615.92.7515.415.10.29
Alexander Johnson4243-0.22-0.280.05-0.375-81316.317.2-0.9415.714.70.97
Mark Blount4847-0.28-0.22-0.05-0.04-85-1317.216.30.9414.715.7-0.97
Dwyane Wade7675-0.33-0.17-0.17-0.28-2-1-116.319.4-3.1015.214.90.31
Ricky Davis7878-0.44-0.06-0.39-0.471-4516.618.2-1.5615.016.6-1.61
Shawn Marion8182-0.46-0.04-0.41-0.43-1-2116.618.6-1.9415.511.73.77
Daequan Cook5151-0.550.05-0.60-0.40-52-717.016.50.5316.213.82.37

Atlanta Hawks
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Joe Johnson85840.53-0.030.570.395-2715.313.81.4716.915.21.76
Marvin Williams60570.430.070.360.4012-115.714.11.5816.317.8-1.49
Al Horford54520.370.130.230.3412-114.915.7-0.8417.116.50.58
Josh Smith72740.310.190.120.40-36-914.119.4-5.2516.817.0-0.23
Josh Childress55560.310.190.110.165-2715.314.90.4017.016.50.50
Salim Stoudamire24240.290.210.090.068-51316.014.91.0517.616.51.11
Mike Bibby64650.130.37-0.240.22-36-915.314.80.5416.717.1-0.43
Zaza Pachulia36370.110.39-0.280.0812-115.714.90.8416.916.80.09
Mario West010.020.48-0.460.0203-30.015.2-15.194.017.0-12.96


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.84,0.77,1
GameSimilarity Score
POR 89, CHI 1000.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,193.0%
HOU 99, SAC 1070.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.85,0.75,0.89,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.93,0.99,1,192.9%
VAN 92, ORL 990.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.59,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,192.9%