NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	92		Excitement	6.5 [467]		MVP	Horace Grant (ORL): +16.3%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	1.9 [911]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): -18.2%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Massenburg	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	81%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Michael Smith	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
George Lynch	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	10	68%	0.12	4	-0.15	8	87%	0.02
Bobby Hurley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Lee Mayberry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	17	46%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Pete Chilcutt	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.08	0.02	14	45%	-0.06	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.10	-0.01	10	62%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	7	52%	0.03	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.01
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.02	0	0.00	7	86%	0.00
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	9	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	9	35%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	12	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	21	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	9	47%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	27.2	16.5	33.6	2.6	30.3	136.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +14.3%

VAN -15.5%

ORL +10.4%

ORL +34.5%

ORL +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	ORL	NBA	VAN	ORL	NBA
this game	16.9	16.8	15.6	107.0	116.5	102.5
season	15.1	16.7		101.3	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.3		101.4	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	17.2	17.0	18.6	15.1	16.9
ORL	19.7	15.0	17.4	15.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	33	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-5	3	16.3	17.3	-1.02	15.7	17.4	-1.69
George Lynch	30	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.04	-2	-5	3	17.0	16.9	0.11	15.9	17.2	-1.37
Bobby Hurley	30	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-7	7	17.0	16.9	0.06	15.8	17.3	-1.52
Sam Mack	32	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-4	1	17.3	16.7	0.61	19.7	15.1	4.61
Michael Smith	41	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-2	-3	18.1	15.8	2.28	18.2	15.4	2.83
Pete Chilcutt	44	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-6	5	15.7	18.2	-2.51	15.0	18.8	-3.87
Blue Edwards	54	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-3	-1	16.7	17.3	-0.61	15.1	19.7	-4.61
Lee Mayberry	56	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-1	-5	16.9	17.0	-0.06	17.6	15.3	2.30
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	56	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-2	-3	16.9	17.0	-0.11	17.2	15.9	1.37
Bryant Reeves	54	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.22	-7	0	-7	17.4	16.1	1.28	17.5	15.5	2.00

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	76	78	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	2	3	16.6	18.4	-1.89	16.6	20.0	-3.38
Mark Price	49	48	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	1	5	15.9	17.9	-1.97	17.4	16.3	1.10
Derek Strong	49	47	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	15.8	18.1	-2.31	17.4	16.4	0.95
Dan Schayes	44	46	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	1	5	17.2	16.3	0.89	17.2	16.6	0.52
David Benoit	34	33	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	0	7	17.1	16.5	0.61	16.8	17.0	-0.13
Nick Anderson	62	63	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	3	1	16.5	17.4	-0.88	16.9	17.0	-0.04
Horace Grant	66	67	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	6	-5	17.4	14.4	3.07	16.7	17.8	-1.17
Derek Harper	45	48	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	5	-3	17.7	15.7	1.99	16.7	17.2	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.59,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 92, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.75,0.66,0.71,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%
POR 77, LAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.86,1,1,1,1	93.6%
SEA 89, CHH 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	93.5%