NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	91		Excitement	8.1 [196]		MVP	Mark Strickland (MIA): +11.1%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	2.1 [727]		LVP	Blue Edwards (VAN): -28.6%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Reeves	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	15	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
George Lynch	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	7	67%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,0.04,0.04	-0.08	0.08	-0.04	19	45%	0.10	2	-0.05	9	100%	0.09
Tony Massenburg	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.02	12	65%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Pete Chilcutt	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Hurley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06
Lee Mayberry	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21	-0.05	-0.12	0.03	3	33%	-0.06	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.29	-0.08	-0.21	0.00	6	43%	-0.06	3	-0.23	2	0%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.02	2	75%	0.06	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	2	125%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	13	67%	0.10	2	-0.07	13	62%	-0.05
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,0.02,0	0.00	-0.06	0.07	0.00	10	45%	0.09	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	23	48%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	9	44%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	11	29%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.7	32.4	15.8	24.4	2.4	40.4	139.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +7.2%

VAN -26.7%

MIA +26.1%

MIA +37.4%

MIA +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	MIA	NBA	VAN	MIA	NBA
this game	17.3	17.8	15.6	111.0	114.6	102.5
season	15.1	15.8		101.3	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.3		99.8	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	17.5	17.8	17.4	16.6	17.3
MIA	16.0	19.2	16.1	20.2	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	36	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-5	7	17.2	17.5	-0.29	20.0	16.0	3.98
Tony Massenburg	12	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-3	3	19.8	16.9	2.93	18.7	17.6	1.08
Michael Smith	45	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	-1	-1	17.7	16.9	0.75	16.5	19.2	-2.69
Pete Chilcutt	15	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	18.4	17.1	1.31	24.2	16.2	8.02
Blue Edwards	39	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-2	1	17.1	17.5	-0.38	17.7	17.8	-0.08
Bobby Hurley	30	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-1	-1	17.6	17.2	0.43	20.2	16.5	3.73
Lee Mayberry	52	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-2	1	17.2	17.6	-0.43	16.5	20.2	-3.73
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	62	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-2	1	17.1	18.1	-1.02	16.4	21.9	-5.53
Bryant Reeves	68	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.47	-2	-1	-1	17.1	18.3	-1.15	17.5	19.3	-1.80
Sam Mack	51	51	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	3	-9	17.0	17.9	-0.97	17.2	18.8	-1.63

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	62	64	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-6	15	16.2	22.6	-6.36	17.8	15.8	1.99
Mark Strickland	35	35	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-10	23	16.9	18.4	-1.53	17.7	17.0	0.72
Tim Hardaway	70	69	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	-1	5	16.7	24.3	-7.66	17.0	19.1	-2.08
Dan Majerle	69	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-3	9	17.3	20.5	-3.17	17.5	16.5	0.97
P.J. Brown	66	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	2	-1	17.4	19.2	-1.81	17.1	18.4	-1.29
Brent Barry	19	19	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	3	-3	19.6	17.3	2.32	16.7	17.5	-0.84
Voshon Lenard	40	40	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.28	-8	11	-19	17.5	18.0	-0.52	17.4	17.2	0.19
Duane Causwell	10	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	4	-5	23.4	17.0	6.39	17.2	17.3	-0.12
Terry Mills	23	23	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	7	-11	22.0	16.2	5.79	17.2	17.4	-0.22
Eric Murdock	16	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	8	-13	23.3	16.5	6.86	17.4	17.3	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.73,0.81,0.92,0.77,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 79, PHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.93,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.74,0.9,0.98,1,1	93.3%
CHH 95, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.75,0.93,0.9,0.91,1	93.2%
POR 93, LAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.95,0.98,1	92.8%