NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	6.8 [422]		MVP	Marc Gasol (LAL): +19.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	1.8 [402]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (DEN): -14.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	28	50%	0.07	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.06
Shaquille Harrison	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.06	0.03	15	59%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
JaMychal Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Facundo Campazzo	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	7	31%	-0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	4	100%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	3	133%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.02,-0.05,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	19	56%	0.16	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.02
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	7	62%	0.11	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	45%	-0.02	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	55%	0.05	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	5	36%	-0.04	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.5	33.2	15.0	30.1	3.6	37.4	148.1
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +46.0%

LAL +6.2%

LAL +13.2%

DEN -12.7%

DEN -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.7	14.4	93.7	96.9	111.3
season	15.0	14.6		116.0	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.4		106.7	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	17.3	13.7	16.0	15.4
LAL	15.0	14.0	14.0	16.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Dozier	47	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-1	-2	15.1	15.7	-0.62	13.3	16.1	-2.83
Aaron Gordon	52	54	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.36	8	-12	20	14.0	17.2	-3.23	13.9	15.8	-1.90
JaVale McGee	24	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	3	-10	15.9	15.3	0.58	16.0	14.3	1.68
Nikola Jokic	71	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-7	10	15.3	15.9	-0.58	14.3	16.0	-1.68
Facundo Campazzo	75	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.25	-3	-1	-2	15.3	15.9	-0.64	14.0	17.2	-3.20
Michael Porter Jr.	78	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-4	4	15.1	17.0	-1.90	14.8	14.5	0.26
JaMychal Green	43	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	8	-20	17.2	14.0	3.23	15.8	13.9	1.90
Austin Rivers	61	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-5	6	15.7	14.9	0.78	16.2	12.1	4.12

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	34	32	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.24	17	-13	30	14.4	14.9	-0.43	16.6	14.8	1.78
Talen Horton-Tucker	38	39	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	2	0	16.6	13.5	3.08	15.8	15.2	0.60
Anthony Davis	68	68	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	1	2	14.3	15.8	-1.51	14.9	16.9	-1.97
Wesley Matthews	30	29	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	-3	10	16.4	14.0	2.45	16.9	14.8	2.09
Ben McLemore	30	29	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	-3	10	16.4	14.0	2.45	16.9	14.8	2.09
Alex Caruso	58	57	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	0	4	13.5	16.6	-3.08	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Kyle Kuzma	66	66	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	7	-10	14.0	16.4	-2.45	14.8	16.9	-2.09
Markieff Morris	28	27	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	3	-2	15.8	14.3	1.51	16.9	14.9	1.97
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	66	65	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.22	-5	9	-14	14.0	16.4	-2.45	14.9	16.7	-1.84
Montrezl Harrell	17	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.01	-2	6	-8	17.8	14.1	3.77	15.1	15.5	-0.40
Andre Drummond	45	46	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	15	-26	13.8	15.6	-1.81	14.7	16.1	-1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.81,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.81,0.93,0.98,0.91,1	94.3%
DEN 105, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.78,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.87,0.93,0.98,1,0.98,1	93.3%
DAL 116, GSW 120	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.35,0.46,0.44,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.99,0.73,1	93.3%