NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	6.6 [481]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +17.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Comeback	2.9 [562]		LVP	Kevin Love (MIN): -27.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18	0.20	0.04	0.05	13	86%	0.21	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.03	0.05	16	62%	0.07	2	-0.06	10	60%	-0.04
Corey Brewer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0	0.06	-0.00	0.06	11	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	53%	0.06	3	-0.08	5	20%	-0.07
Jordan Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	23%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	15	47%	-0.03	4	-0.18	6	67%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.21	-0.06	-0.00	9	11%	-0.14	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.06	0.01	10	79%	0.21	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	5	86%	0.14	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	12	55%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	12	60%	0.09	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	10	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malcolm Lee	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	12	54%	0.05	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.20	-0.09	-0.02	17	21%	-0.20	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.3	31.5	14.8	26.2	2.5	38.3	138.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -7.3%

MIN +22.4%

MIN +18.7%

MIN +14.8%

MIN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	14.4	14.4	15.4	105.0	108.0	104.1
season	14.4	15.6		108.4	101.3
opponent	14.9	15.4		103.4	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	15.8	14.4	14.4	14.4
MIN	15.3	13.0	15.0	14.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Timofey Mozgov	2	2	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.04	-4	1	-5	13.5	14.4	-0.89	15.0	14.4	0.58
Danilo Gallinari	75	76	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.39	7	-10	17	13.6	16.8	-3.24	14.4	14.5	-0.09
Kosta Koufos	45	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	2	-7	15.7	13.3	2.36	15.0	13.9	1.14
Andre Iguodala	73	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-6	9	14.1	15.0	-0.91	14.2	15.0	-0.84
Kenneth Faried	79	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.45	8	-11	19	14.0	15.9	-1.88	14.8	13.1	1.66
JaVale McGee	33	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	4	-11	13.6	14.8	-1.19	14.5	14.4	0.08
Ty Lawson	79	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-7	11	13.6	17.2	-3.63	14.5	14.0	0.54
Jordan Hamilton	19	19	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	8	-19	17.0	13.8	3.25	13.9	14.6	-0.66
Corey Brewer	55	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-6	9	13.9	14.9	-0.98	13.8	15.2	-1.48
Andre Miller	40	40	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	10	-23	17.2	12.5	4.76	14.3	14.5	-0.13

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	48	48	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	0	3	13.4	15.3	-1.91	15.5	13.3	2.21
Luke Ridnour	61	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	-3	9	13.8	15.4	-1.65	13.2	16.1	-2.88
Nikola Pekovic	63	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	-5	13	15.6	12.4	3.21	14.7	13.8	0.84
Jose Juan Barea	56	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	4	-5	14.3	14.6	-0.25	14.9	13.7	1.15
Andrei Kirilenko	76	76	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.40	-5	8	-13	14.5	14.2	0.29	13.4	17.5	-4.06
Derrick Williams	24	24	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	-5	13	14.2	14.5	-0.29	17.5	13.4	4.06
Kevin Love	67	65	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.13	1	2	-1	14.5	14.3	0.19	13.4	16.2	-2.82
Alexey Shved	62	64	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.20	-2	5	-7	14.8	13.8	1.03	14.8	13.7	1.10
Malcolm Lee	22	21	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	2	-1	14.8	14.3	0.50	14.3	14.4	-0.11
Greg Stiemsma	21	21	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	7	-11	13.5	14.7	-1.15	14.7	14.3	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.78,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.87,0.93,0.98,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 77, DAL 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1	94.4%
LAL 88, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.7,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
NYK 92, PHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.2%