inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Boston Celtics 109 Excitement6.7 [490] MVPNikola Jokic (DEN): +31.9%
Denver Nuggets 115 Comeback1.6 [529] LVPJayson Tatum (BOS): -22.1%


Boston Celtics
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Jaylen Brown0.160,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.160.120.02-0.022957%0.222-0.061450%-0.10
Jrue Holiday0.100,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.10.040.070.011060%0.141-0.0400%0.00
Sam Hauser0.080,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.080.060.020.003100%0.0800.0000%0.00
Al Horford0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.010.01-0.00233%0.0000.002100%0.01
Xavier Tillman0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.000.00250%0.0000.0000%0.00
Payton Pritchard-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.020.00-0.0010%-0.0100.0000%0.00
Derrick White-0.020,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02-0.02-0.01-0.01841%-0.011-0.021100%0.00
Kristaps Porzingis-0.030,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.02-0.03-0.022348%0.063-0.09475%-0.00
Jayson Tatum-0.220,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22-0.08-0.120.021350%-0.085-0.15475%0.00

Denver Nuggets
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Nikola Jokic0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.320.320.190.12-0.011967%0.3200.0010100%0.08
Peyton Watson0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.110.110.060.05-0.00961%0.1100.0000%0.00
Aaron Gordon0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.10.100.050.070.011553%0.1000.0000%0.00
Zeke Nnaji0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.040.020.001100%0.0600.002100%0.01
Christian Braun0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.050.050.010.00370%0.0500.00475%0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.030.010.02769%0.092-0.072100%0.00
Justin Holiday0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.010.000.00-0.00250%0.0100.0000%0.00
Michael Porter Jr.0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.02-0.010.01950%0.0000.0000%0.00
Reggie Jackson0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.04-0.040.00-0.00729%-0.0400.0000%0.00
Jamal Murray0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.12-0.12-0.09-0.05-0.021847%0.065-0.174100%0.03
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game24.53.530.215.827.22.839.2143.2
league avg25.82.328.015.028.22.332.4135.1
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
DEN +18.2%
DEN +16.4%
DEN +7.0%
DEN +8.3%
DEN +0.0%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsBOSDENNBABOSDENNBA
this game13.415.414.5109.0115.0113.9
season14.815.0121.3116.8
opponent14.514.7111.6109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
BOS13.313.913.712.913.4
DEN16.713.816.314.715.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Payton Pritchard2120-0.08-0.420.35-0.05-1-5417.312.44.9314.415.6-1.14
Kristaps Porzingis7678-0.20-0.300.10-0.386-121812.117.8-5.7815.216.1-0.94
Sam Hauser1817-0.22-0.280.060.02-82-1015.113.11.9717.914.83.11
Xavier Tillman2624-0.28-0.23-0.050.08-126-1817.612.05.5915.615.30.29
Jaylen Brown8486-0.29-0.21-0.07-0.435-111613.115.2-2.1515.713.42.25
Jayson Tatum8384-0.33-0.17-0.17-0.28-2-4212.816.6-3.8615.216.2-0.99
Al Horford3938-0.34-0.16-0.18-0.05-104-1414.612.71.8815.115.5-0.50
Derrick White7778-0.38-0.12-0.27-0.32-2-4213.014.8-1.8015.614.51.10
Jrue Holiday7675-0.39-0.11-0.27-0.21-60-612.915.2-2.3314.916.8-1.92

Denver Nuggets
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Nikola Jokic81820.53-0.030.550.269-31215.713.81.8712.816.6-3.80
Peyton Watson33330.380.120.260.0611-51614.515.8-1.3116.312.04.32
Jamal Murray78780.360.140.220.2151414.917.0-2.1613.812.11.67
Christian Braun33340.310.190.120.0210-41414.415.8-1.4415.512.43.17
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope72690.250.250.000.37-410-1416.013.72.3412.815.0-2.21
Justin Holiday26270.190.31-0.12-0.017-1813.815.9-2.1015.412.72.64
Aaron Gordon75740.190.31-0.130.36-612-1815.315.4-0.1112.217.1-4.91
Michael Porter Jr.65650.110.39-0.290.25-511-1615.914.31.6512.016.1-4.07
Reggie Jackson22230.100.40-0.300.0715-417.714.72.9811.713.9-2.21
Zeke Nnaji15150.090.41-0.320.0324-213.715.6-1.9118.912.56.46


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.71,0.65,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.84,1
GameSimilarity Score
IND 100, GSW 1070.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.49,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,193.4%
DAL 100, ATL 1130.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,193.2%
MIL 86, NYK 930.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.85,0.84,193.1%