NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	109		Excitement	6.7 [498]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +31.9%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.6 [539]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -22.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.02	-0.02	29	57%	0.22	2	-0.06	14	50%	-0.10
Jrue Holiday	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.07	0.01	10	60%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Xavier Tillman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	23	48%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Jayson Tatum	-0.22	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22	-0.08	-0.12	0.02	13	50%	-0.08	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.19	0.12	-0.01	19	67%	0.32	0	0.00	10	100%	0.08
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	9	61%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.07	0.01	15	53%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	3	70%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	7	69%	0.09	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	18	47%	0.06	5	-0.17	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.5	30.2	15.8	27.2	2.8	39.2	143.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +18.2%

DEN +16.4%

DEN +7.0%

DEN +8.3%

DEN +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	13.4	15.4	14.5	109.0	115.0	113.9
season	14.9	15.0		120.7	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.7		111.6	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.3	13.9	13.7	12.9	13.4
DEN	16.7	13.8	16.3	14.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Payton Pritchard	21	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-5	4	17.3	12.4	4.93	14.4	15.6	-1.14
Kristaps Porzingis	76	78	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.38	6	-12	18	12.1	17.8	-5.78	15.2	16.1	-0.94
Sam Hauser	18	17	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	2	-10	15.1	13.1	1.97	17.9	14.8	3.11
Xavier Tillman	26	24	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	6	-18	17.6	12.0	5.59	15.6	15.3	0.29
Jaylen Brown	84	86	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.43	5	-11	16	13.1	15.2	-2.15	15.7	13.4	2.25
Jayson Tatum	83	84	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-4	2	12.8	16.6	-3.86	15.2	16.2	-0.99
Al Horford	39	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	4	-14	14.6	12.7	1.88	15.1	15.5	-0.50
Derrick White	77	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.32	-2	-4	2	13.0	14.8	-1.80	15.6	14.5	1.10
Jrue Holiday	76	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	0	-6	12.9	15.2	-2.33	14.9	16.8	-1.92

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	81	82	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-3	12	15.7	13.8	1.87	12.8	16.6	-3.80
Peyton Watson	33	33	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-5	16	14.5	15.8	-1.31	16.3	12.0	4.32
Jamal Murray	78	78	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	1	4	14.9	17.0	-2.16	13.8	12.1	1.67
Christian Braun	33	34	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-4	14	14.4	15.8	-1.44	15.5	12.4	3.17
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	69	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.37	-4	10	-14	16.0	13.7	2.34	12.8	15.0	-2.21
Justin Holiday	26	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	-1	8	13.8	15.9	-2.10	15.4	12.7	2.64
Aaron Gordon	75	74	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.36	-6	12	-18	15.3	15.4	-0.11	12.2	17.1	-4.91
Michael Porter Jr.	65	65	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.25	-5	11	-16	15.9	14.3	1.65	12.0	16.1	-4.07
Reggie Jackson	22	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	5	-4	17.7	14.7	2.98	11.7	13.9	-2.21
Zeke Nnaji	15	15	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	4	-2	13.7	15.6	-1.91	18.9	12.5	6.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.71,0.65,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 100, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.49,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,1	93.4%
DAL 100, ATL 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	93.2%
MIL 86, NYK 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.85,0.84,1	93.1%