NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	124		Excitement	7.4 [370]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +38.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	114		Comeback	3.7 [280]		LVP	Christian Braun (DEN): -7.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.38	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.28	0.12	0.01	10	125%	0.40	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.25	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.15	0.14	0.04	25	67%	0.33	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Justin Holiday	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.08	-0.01	7	93%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.10	-0.02	23	50%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	5	58%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Aaron Gordon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.05	16	55%	0.10	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.03	0.01	15	77%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Reaves	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	12	73%	0.23	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.10	0.02	20	62%	0.33	3	-0.16	2	0%	-0.05
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.00	13	59%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.03	0.02	13	57%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cam Reddish	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.8	27.2	14.7	23.6	3.4	26.5	121.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +40.1%

LAL -6.0%

DEN +14.6%

DEN +2.5%

LAL -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	14.5	130.5	121.3	113.9
season	15.0	14.1		116.2	114.4
opponent	14.3	14.6		114.3	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	13.9	15.4	18.5	15.7
LAL	14.1	13.8	15.2	16.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	77	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-6	22	15.4	16.9	-1.59	15.1	13.8	1.22
Aaron Gordon	71	69	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	0	10	15.3	16.8	-1.58	14.8	14.8	0.03
Justin Holiday	59	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	2	6	15.9	15.2	0.74	15.5	13.7	1.76
Jamal Murray	75	75	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	4	2	16.2	13.7	2.47	14.6	15.8	-1.22
Michael Porter Jr.	73	72	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	6	-2	16.2	13.8	2.45	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Christian Braun	50	50	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	1	8	14.8	16.6	-1.84	14.2	15.6	-1.41
Reggie Jackson	23	22	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	7	-4	13.8	16.2	-2.47	15.1	14.7	0.41
Zeke Nnaji	16	17	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	13	-16	17.8	15.2	2.60	14.4	14.9	-0.50
Peyton Watson	31	30	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	13	-16	15.9	15.5	0.32	14.9	14.8	0.07

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D'Angelo Russell	62	62	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-12	14	13.4	17.5	-4.11	16.1	14.7	1.42
Jaxson Hayes	17	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-11	12	14.4	14.9	-0.50	16.1	15.6	0.50
Spencer Dinwiddie	37	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.13	-7	-3	-4	16.3	13.9	2.39	15.3	15.9	-0.56
Taurean Prince	24	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-6	2	15.6	14.6	1.03	13.5	16.4	-2.82
LeBron James	73	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-9	8	14.4	16.2	-1.83	16.4	13.1	3.28
Austin Reaves	72	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	-1	-8	15.0	14.2	0.77	15.7	15.4	0.38
Cam Reddish	36	36	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	15.7	14.3	1.46	15.8	15.6	0.25
Anthony Davis	76	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	1	-12	14.9	14.3	0.67	15.2	17.8	-2.64
Rui Hachimura	73	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	3	-16	14.8	15.0	-0.23	15.6	15.8	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.28,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 109, ATL 104	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.46,0.25,0.09,0	90.8%
BOS 101, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.35,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.31,0.15,0.03,0.01,0	90.7%
MIA 85, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.26,0.16,0.06,0.09,0	90.5%