NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	109		Excitement	7.6 [342]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +25.2%
Atlanta Hawks	104		Comeback	3.1 [202]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -11.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.25	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.13	0.13	0.00	18	74%	0.31	3	-0.06	7	86%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23	0.07	0.16	-0.00	7	70%	0.23	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Eric Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	71%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Aaron Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pape Sow	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	8	57%	-0.01	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.04
Jalen Rose	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	17	50%	-0.10	0	0.00	18	61%	-0.06

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.12	0.02	14	66%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.04	-0.03	13	75%	0.33	2	-0.23	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	56%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Donta Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	-0.05	0.05	8	86%	0.05	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	7	47%	0.04	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	13	47%	-0.06	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	29.0	15.8	27.2	2.0	31.2	133.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -1.5%

TOR +10.7%

ATL -1.3%

TOR +34.5%

TOR +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	15.9	16.6	15.5	123.9	116.9	104.0
season	15.1	15.6		104.8	98.1
opponent	15.1	15.4		108.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.1	14.5	16.5	15.8	15.9
ATL	15.6	14.9	18.6	17.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	50	48	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.34	16	-11	27	14.8	17.4	-2.53	17.1	16.0	1.03
Rafer Alston	50	51	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-2	9	15.5	16.5	-0.95	17.2	15.9	1.29
Jalen Rose	72	72	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.35	9	-4	13	15.8	16.3	-0.47	17.0	14.9	2.13
Chris Bosh	81	81	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-4	13	15.9	16.1	-0.23	16.7	15.4	1.35
Matt Bonner	53	54	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.34	7	-2	9	15.0	17.3	-2.25	16.2	17.2	-0.93
Pape Sow	16	16	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.05	3	2	1	16.9	15.7	1.15	16.6	16.6	-0.05
Donyell Marshall	9	10	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	8	-11	14.9	16.1	-1.16	13.1	17.1	-3.95
Milt Palacio	40	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.07	-2	7	-9	16.7	15.3	1.45	16.5	16.7	-0.15
Aaron Williams	25	26	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	10	-15	17.3	15.4	1.94	18.2	16.0	2.24
Lamond Murray	13	14	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.05	-7	12	-19	17.5	15.7	1.79	14.1	17.1	-2.92
Eric Williams	31	33	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.02	-9	14	-23	17.2	15.3	1.90	15.5	17.3	-1.83

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	37	35	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.07	5	-10	15	16.4	16.7	-0.30	17.6	14.8	2.77
Donta Smith	13	12	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-4	3	13.8	17.1	-3.23	13.7	16.3	-2.62
Royal Ivey	4	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-4	3	16.2	16.6	-0.37	5.3	16.3	-10.97
Obinna Ekezie	21	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	1	-7	18.3	16.1	2.26	16.5	15.8	0.70
Predrag Drobnjak	38	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.16	2	-7	9	15.9	17.2	-1.29	16.3	15.7	0.54
Tom Gugliotta	31	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-4	3	17.9	15.9	1.99	18.4	14.6	3.84
Al Harrington	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-4	3	16.4	17.8	-1.40	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Tony Delk	56	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-4	3	16.4	16.9	-0.48	15.7	16.3	-0.55
Tyronn Lue	44	45	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	3	-11	16.7	16.5	0.15	14.7	17.2	-2.45
Josh Smith	61	62	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.34	-7	2	-9	16.6	16.6	0.05	15.9	16.0	-0.10
Josh Childress	65	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.43	-6	1	-7	16.9	15.9	1.00	15.6	17.0	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.46,0.25,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 87, HOU 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.3,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.31,0.09,0	92.4%
DAL 91, PHX 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.51,0.41,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.08,0	91.8%
SAC 96, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.23,0.04,0	91.7%