NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	96		Excitement	8.0 [256]		MVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): +24.2%
Toronto Raptors	91		Comeback	2.8 [116]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -20.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24	0.04	0.19	-0.02	19	55%	0.35	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.04
Kosta Koufos	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.01	8	72%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	8	67%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jordan Farmar	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	21	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.03
Matt Barnes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	42%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.03
Omri Casspi	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	0.00	6	62%	-0.01	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	28%	-0.09	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.01	16	43%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	87%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	44%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	35%	0.01	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	22%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	9	44%	-0.04	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.05,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.00	-0.19	0.01	20	46%	-0.10	1	-0.10	10	80%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	29.5	14.8	28.2	2.4	39.7	141.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +55.9%

TOR -6.8%

SAC +5.4%

TOR -6.7%

SAC +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	TOR	NBA	SAC	TOR	NBA
this game	15.9	16.3	14.8	106.7	102.2	107.7
season	15.4	15.2		106.0	110.0
opponent	14.9	14.6		106.9	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.1	14.3	17.8	14.8	15.9
TOR	18.0	17.0	17.3	13.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	66	65	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.34	13	-8	21	15.4	17.2	-1.76	16.8	14.9	1.90
DeMarcus Cousins	67	64	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.44	7	-2	9	16.6	13.8	2.81	15.9	17.4	-1.58
Ty Lawson	67	68	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.44	4	1	3	16.3	14.7	1.65	15.9	17.7	-1.85
Matt Barnes	58	58	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	1	3	15.8	16.0	-0.24	15.2	18.4	-3.25
Arron Afflalo	69	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	5	-5	15.9	15.7	0.21	16.2	16.7	-0.54
Garrett Temple	38	38	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	2	1	15.4	16.2	-0.74	16.9	15.9	0.99
Omri Casspi	18	18	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	6	-7	15.8	15.9	-0.06	16.3	16.3	-0.03
Jordan Farmar	22	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.03	-2	7	-9	14.6	16.3	-1.70	17.4	16.0	1.42
Kosta Koufos	45	47	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.10	-3	8	-11	15.9	15.8	0.07	17.5	15.0	2.56

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pascal Siakam	43	42	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.01	9	-14	23	16.3	16.3	-0.00	17.9	14.1	3.76
DeMarre Carroll	37	37	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-10	15	18.0	15.1	2.95	16.8	15.2	1.63
Terrence Ross	36	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-1	-3	16.3	16.3	0.05	16.3	15.6	0.71
Cory Joseph	34	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.11	-8	3	-11	17.7	15.5	2.22	13.1	17.5	-4.35
Kyle Lowry	73	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.43	9	-14	23	15.4	20.6	-5.19	17.0	10.7	6.24
Lucas Nogueira	38	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	0	-5	18.1	15.0	3.14	15.4	16.2	-0.84
Norman Powell	20	21	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-3	1	13.7	17.0	-3.29	14.0	16.4	-2.39
Jakob Poeltl	34	36	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.35	-7	2	-9	15.4	16.9	-1.54	16.3	15.6	0.71
Patrick Patterson	61	62	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	5	-15	15.5	18.1	-2.68	14.9	18.1	-3.24
DeMar DeRozan	69	71	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.36	-12	7	-19	16.6	15.1	1.49	15.6	17.1	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.23,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 79, BOS 74	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.09,0.04,0	92.9%
NOH 87, MIA 83	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.28,0.06,0.05,0	92.3%
BOS 92, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.16,0	92.1%