NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	87		Excitement	7.2 [367]		MVP	P.J. Brown (NOH): +21.3%
Miami Heat	83		Comeback	3.8 [483]		LVP	Travis Best (MIA): -17.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21	0.09	0.12	0.00	15	62%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.18,0.17,0.18	-0.02	0.18	-0.03	18	49%	0.20	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Robert Traylor	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	4	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Courtney Alexander	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	2	67%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Anderson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	13	42%	0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	11	46%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
George Lynch	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	7	19%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.02	10	74%	0.18	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.06	-0.00	9	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	9	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	25	48%	-0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	9	22%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	7	37%	-0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.6	26.2	15.8	22.5	2.0	34.0	126.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +54.7%

MIA -5.3%

NOH +15.1%

MIA -20.8%

NOH +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIA	NBA	NOH	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	16.4	15.5	101.2	96.5	101.6
season	15.9	16.3		101.6	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.6		100.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	19.2	17.0	13.5	18.6	17.1
MIA	12.1	15.7	20.8	17.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	63	64	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.37	12	-8	20	17.6	15.8	1.80	16.6	15.9	0.70
Jamal Mashburn	75	75	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.41	6	-2	8	16.7	19.6	-2.90	16.7	14.5	2.21
Jamaal Magloire	61	59	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.41	6	-2	8	16.1	19.4	-3.29	16.3	16.6	-0.25
Kenny Anderson	35	36	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.39	6	-2	8	18.2	16.4	1.80	16.0	16.6	-0.61
David Wesley	59	58	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	2	0	16.3	18.8	-2.44	16.3	16.5	-0.12
George Lynch	50	50	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	0	4	16.7	17.7	-0.97	16.8	15.8	0.95
Stacey Augmon	25	25	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	5	-6	17.8	16.8	0.98	15.6	16.7	-1.16
Courtney Alexander	14	15	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	7	-10	19.9	16.6	3.29	15.2	16.6	-1.43
Robert Traylor	25	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	8	-12	19.4	16.1	3.29	17.0	16.1	0.94
Jerome Moiso	23	22	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.01	-8	12	-20	15.8	17.6	-1.80	15.9	16.6	-0.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	10	10	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.04	2	-6	8	15.7	16.5	-0.77	13.2	17.6	-4.42
Sean Lampley	32	31	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-8	12	16.6	16.2	0.38	19.0	16.0	2.96
Rasual Butler	43	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-4	4	16.7	16.1	0.53	16.1	18.1	-1.93
Anthony Carter	9	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	0	-4	13.4	16.7	-3.28	16.4	17.2	-0.85
Malik Allen	59	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	2	-8	16.7	15.6	1.10	17.4	16.4	1.00
Vladimir Stepania	49	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.38	2	-6	8	16.3	16.4	-0.09	17.6	16.4	1.22
Travis Best	56	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	0	-4	16.2	16.8	-0.59	16.5	18.2	-1.73
Mike James	38	38	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.37	-4	0	-4	16.3	16.5	-0.17	17.8	16.6	1.23
Caron Butler	81	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	0	-4	16.5	14.4	2.11	16.9	19.7	-2.75
Brian Grant	53	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.36	-6	2	-8	16.4	16.4	0.03	17.3	16.8	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.28,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 79, BOS 74	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.09,0.04,0	93.8%
DET 90, MEM 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.02,0.02,0	92.7%
SAC 96, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.23,0.04,0	92.3%