NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	7.4 [375]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +55.2%
Indiana Pacers	109		Comeback	4.7 [457]		LVP	Myles Turner (IND): -12.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.55	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.34,0.34,0.46,0.55	0.22	0.35	0.02	19	77%	0.59	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.12	0.07	0.02	-0.02	24	57%	0.20	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.07
Aaron Gordon	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	69%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	12	54%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	11	59%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	70%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	28%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.06	0.14	0.00	2	125%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	9	83%	0.19	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	11	71%	0.12	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	43%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	52%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.03
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	13	46%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	16	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.02	-0.12	0.02	18	51%	-0.04	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	26.3	14.7	27.3	2.4	37.4	136.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +55.8%

IND -1.7%

IND -2.9%

IND -9.0%

DEN +7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	16.3	13.8	14.5	120.0	113.5	113.9
season	15.0	13.8		116.2	120.0
opponent	14.7	14.6		117.4	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.8	17.2	13.3	18.5	16.3
IND	12.7	14.1	14.3	14.2	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	74	74	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.26	17	-12	29	15.7	18.7	-2.98	13.7	14.2	-0.47
Nikola Jokic	73	73	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.30	9	-4	13	16.0	17.5	-1.44	14.1	12.9	1.20
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	68	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	-2	9	16.1	16.9	-0.81	14.4	12.4	1.97
Aaron Gordon	64	65	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.29	5	0	5	16.0	17.1	-1.06	14.3	12.8	1.50
Michael Porter Jr.	62	63	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	-2	9	15.4	18.2	-2.86	14.3	12.8	1.48
Peyton Watson	35	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	8	-11	18.3	15.2	3.16	13.1	14.2	-1.07
Christian Braun	30	29	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	6	-7	16.9	16.1	0.86	12.4	14.4	-1.97
DeAndre Jordan	21	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	7	-9	17.3	16.1	1.27	12.9	14.1	-1.20
Reggie Jackson	48	48	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.17	-14	19	-33	17.7	15.0	2.71	13.2	14.4	-1.23

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. McConnell	41	41	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.14	10	-15	25	13.2	14.3	-1.05	17.6	15.4	2.26
Obi Toppin	33	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-9	13	12.4	14.6	-2.22	16.8	16.1	0.76
Isaiah Jackson	19	19	-0.02	-0.47	0.45	-0.02	0	-5	5	13.1	14.0	-0.89	17.6	16.0	1.54
Bennedict Mathurin	59	58	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.13	2	-7	9	13.6	14.1	-0.46	15.3	17.9	-2.62
Ben Sheppard	22	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.29	7	-12	19	14.2	13.7	0.52	18.5	15.7	2.80
Aaron Nesmith	68	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-1	-3	14.4	12.5	1.82	16.1	16.9	-0.86
Pascal Siakam	66	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	0	-5	14.4	12.6	1.73	16.1	16.8	-0.75
Buddy Hield	43	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.05	-15	10	-25	13.0	14.5	-1.45	17.0	15.8	1.24
Myles Turner	74	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.30	-9	4	-13	14.2	12.6	1.54	16.0	17.5	-1.44
Andrew Nembhard	55	54	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.21	-15	10	-25	14.3	13.2	1.05	15.4	17.6	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.57,0.64,0.42,0.48,0.35,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.26,0.21,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.24,0.23,0.46,0.37,0.57,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 106, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.3,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.27,0.34,0.45,0.37,0.22,0,0	90.8%
PHX 116, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.28,0.33,0.09,0	90.4%
CHA 105, NJN 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.55,0.16,0	90.2%