NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	121		Excitement	6.9 [454]		MVP	Tobias Harris (PHI): +36.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	126		Comeback	3.2 [396]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -6.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	6	71%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	-0.00	-0.02	5	85%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	20	57%	0.15	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04	0.13	-0.01	0.07	12	69%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	11	57%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	33%	-0.05
Peyton Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	13	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.07	-0.01	16	50%	0.04	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.23	0.14	-0.00	10	92%	0.37	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Joel Embiid	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.23,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.22	0.10	0.03	22	69%	0.39	3	-0.10	15	80%	0.02
Marcus Morris Sr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.09	-0.01	3	64%	0.16	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	100%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	20	53%	0.09	1	-0.05	7	43%	-0.06
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Furkan Korkmaz	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.00	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.4	36.3	15.7	27.4	3.4	37.5	147.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +38.7%

PHI +15.1%

DEN -19.8%

PHI +11.8%

PHI +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHI	NBA	DEN	PHI	NBA
this game	16.3	14.7	14.5	131.5	134.0	113.9
season	15.0	14.9		116.2	115.6
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.6	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	15.6	17.3	16.1	16.3
PHI	15.8	12.1	17.0	14.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	30	33	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.11	3	-8	11	18.1	15.4	2.73	15.6	14.3	1.31
Reggie Jackson	37	37	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-9	13	17.0	15.8	1.19	15.0	14.5	0.50
DeAndre Jordan	18	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	0	-5	19.5	15.5	4.03	13.6	15.0	-1.37
Peyton Watson	21	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	3	-11	18.6	15.6	2.99	13.7	15.0	-1.36
Nikola Jokic	74	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-6	7	15.5	19.5	-4.03	15.0	13.6	1.37
Aaron Gordon	75	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-5	5	15.4	20.0	-4.59	14.9	14.1	0.74
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	65	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	15.4	18.4	-2.99	15.1	13.9	1.15
Jamal Murray	73	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	0	-5	16.6	14.9	1.66	14.3	16.5	-2.19
Michael Porter Jr.	67	68	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.41	-12	7	-19	15.7	17.6	-1.89	14.5	15.4	-0.91

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	70	69	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-2	9	15.1	13.7	1.36	15.7	17.9	-2.20
Tobias Harris	75	74	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.28	13	-8	21	14.3	16.6	-2.33	16.4	15.8	0.53
Tyrese Maxey	85	84	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.38	9	-4	13	14.1	20.9	-6.82	16.2	17.0	-0.81
Patrick Beverley	52	49	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	1	3	15.1	14.3	0.83	16.2	16.3	-0.03
Joel Embiid	77	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	5	-5	14.9	14.1	0.74	15.4	20.0	-4.59
Paul Reed	17	17	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	0	5	14.1	14.9	-0.74	20.0	15.4	4.59
Marcus Morris Sr.	35	33	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	8	-11	15.3	14.4	0.90	17.5	15.6	1.96
Kelly Oubre Jr.	51	51	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	8	-11	15.4	13.9	1.55	16.4	16.1	0.29
Furkan Korkmaz	8	8	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.12	-7	12	-19	13.6	14.8	-1.20	14.9	16.4	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.61,0.5,0.45,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.61,0.83,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 101, DAL 116	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.63,0.56,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.6,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%
CLE 92, NOH 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.78,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.1%
NJN 84, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.4,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.3,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.93,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	91.5%