NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	7.1 [409]		MVP	Tari Eason (HOU): +22.0%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	3.1 [227]		LVP	Christian Braun (DEN): -10.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.00	19	66%	0.24	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.15	0.13	0.06	0.05	26	60%	0.19	3	-0.05	8	100%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	10	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.06
Reggie Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	12	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Collin Gillespie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.14	0.00	4	100%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.09	0.00	7	83%	0.22	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22	0.22	0.05	0.15	-0.02	21	53%	0.27	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.03
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	18	55%	0.12	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jock Landale	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.03	6	62%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	13	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	28.4	14.7	25.5	1.8	34.2	129.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +17.2%

HOU +28.2%

DEN -3.6%

HOU +6.6%

HOU +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	14.5	109.5	113.8	113.9
season	14.9	14.2		116.6	113.2
opponent	14.6	14.6		112.2	111.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.6	16.4	17.4	13.5	15.7
HOU	15.1	14.2	14.5	15.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	77	76	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.37	12	-15	27	14.8	19.7	-4.91	15.0	14.0	0.97
Julian Strawther	15	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	2	-7	18.7	15.1	3.62	12.9	15.2	-2.23
Peyton Watson	14	14	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.03	-6	3	-9	18.5	15.2	3.30	13.5	15.0	-1.51
Aaron Gordon	77	75	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.38	8	-11	19	15.0	18.7	-3.75	15.2	13.2	1.98
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	75	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.34	6	-9	15	14.8	19.0	-4.26	14.9	14.2	0.68
Collin Gillespie	38	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-3	3	16.4	15.2	1.14	16.0	14.0	2.04
Reggie Jackson	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	0	-3	15.2	16.4	-1.14	14.0	16.0	-2.04
Michael Porter Jr.	81	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-1	-1	15.4	17.3	-1.88	14.6	15.6	-0.92
Christian Braun	26	25	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	8	-19	18.6	14.6	3.98	15.5	14.5	1.00
Zeke Nnaji	21	21	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.10	-18	15	-33	20.1	14.4	5.66	13.2	15.2	-1.99

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	50	52	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.39	14	-11	25	14.2	15.5	-1.30	15.5	16.0	-0.49
Jalen Green	68	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-7	17	15.1	14.0	1.09	15.9	15.0	0.94
Tari Eason	29	29	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-9	21	14.2	15.0	-0.79	18.7	14.4	4.28
Aaron Holiday	29	30	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	-5	13	16.2	14.2	2.00	18.1	14.6	3.53
Fred VanVleet	80	81	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.37	-4	7	-11	14.7	15.3	-0.59	15.2	18.7	-3.55
Jae'Sean Tate	39	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	1	1	15.2	14.5	0.71	16.2	15.3	0.93
Dillon Brooks	60	61	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.30	-9	12	-21	14.8	14.8	-0.06	14.5	17.9	-3.42
Alperen Sengun	68	68	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.25	-8	11	-19	15.2	13.8	1.41	15.5	16.2	-0.70
Jock Landale	4	4	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	7	-11	17.2	14.7	2.57	12.7	15.8	-3.06
Jabari Smith Jr.	43	42	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	9	-15	13.4	15.9	-2.52	14.6	16.5	-1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, WAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.37,0.33,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.92,1	93.9%
IND 102, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.34,0.4,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	93.7%
POR 96, IND 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.95,1,0.98,1,1	93.4%