NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	120		Excitement	6.6 [590]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +26.4%
Miami Heat	127		Comeback	1.8 [706]		LVP	Julius Randle (NYK): -17.1%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Grimes	0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.20	0.04	0.01	12	85%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Hart	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.00	5	86%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
RJ Barrett	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15	0.16	0.03	0.04	13	79%	0.23	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.01
Mitchell Robinson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	4	83%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jalen Brunson	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	16	68%	0.20	5	-0.14	5	60%	0.01
Miles McBride	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	8	28%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.07	0.04	16	45%	-0.04	4	-0.13	1	0%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.16	0.11	0.01	13	79%	0.28	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.10	-0.00	5	110%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.20	0.03	0.01	19	67%	0.22	1	-0.00	14	79%	0.03
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.07	0.05	12	79%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.02	9	70%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kevin Love	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	11	54%	0.06	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	27.4	15.4	27.4	2.7	37.2	136.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.8%

MIA +2.0%

NYK -15.4%

MIA +29.4%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	15.0	14.4	120.0	128.3	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		115.6	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.4		112.1	112.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.4	13.2	13.6	12.7	13.9
MIA	13.0	14.5	15.2	17.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitchell Robinson	48	47	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.06	2	-9	11	15.0	13.0	1.98	16.7	13.5	3.20
Immanuel Quickley	39	38	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-7	7	13.9	14.0	-0.04	15.1	15.0	0.09
Miles McBride	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.06	-2	-5	3	2.0	14.1	-12.07	23.0	14.9	8.08
Obi Toppin	23	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-6	5	14.7	13.7	0.91	16.3	14.6	1.76
Quentin Grimes	54	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-7	7	14.0	13.9	0.03	14.4	15.8	-1.39
RJ Barrett	72	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-5	3	14.0	13.7	0.33	15.6	13.2	2.35
Julius Randle	77	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	-1	-5	13.7	14.7	-0.91	14.6	16.3	-1.76
Josh Hart	64	63	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	3	-13	13.2	15.3	-2.07	14.9	15.1	-0.22
Jalen Brunson	80	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.41	-4	-3	-1	13.9	14.1	-0.25	14.6	16.7	-2.12
Isaiah Hartenstein	42	41	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.25	-12	5	-17	14.1	13.8	0.33	13.6	16.0	-2.46

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	77	78	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.35	6	1	5	14.8	15.7	-0.88	13.7	15.0	-1.29
Max Strus	66	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-3	13	15.7	13.5	2.23	13.0	15.9	-2.88
Tyler Herro	66	66	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	0	7	15.4	14.3	1.09	14.5	12.9	1.57
Kevin Love	49	48	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	-2	11	14.3	15.7	-1.45	14.9	13.0	1.90
Kyle Lowry	49	49	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	1	5	15.3	14.7	0.61	13.4	14.4	-0.98
Bam Adebayo	81	82	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.22	0	7	-7	15.0	15.1	-0.14	14.2	12.8	1.43
Gabe Vincent	51	53	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	8	-9	14.6	15.4	-0.77	14.3	13.6	0.75
Haywood Highsmith	9	9	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.08	1	6	-5	15.4	15.0	0.49	11.1	14.2	-3.12
Caleb Martin	47	47	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	10	-13	14.6	15.4	-0.81	14.2	13.7	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.72,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.82,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 83, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	92.8%
TOR 79, BOS 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.4%
DAL 109, SAC 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.96,1	92.1%