NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	109		Excitement	7.5 [315]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DAL): +33.0%
Sacramento Kings	115		Comeback	1.9 [800]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -16.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.33	0.21	0.11	-0.01	23	76%	0.40	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.05	-0.01	15	58%	0.05	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.01	12	58%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.12,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.00	12	58%	0.09	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	1	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	14	52%	-0.05	3	-0.11	12	92%	0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.07	-0.03	20	50%	0.11	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	17	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.06	0.00	12	53%	0.10	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	58%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	12	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.05
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	17	57%	0.08	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.8	31.5	18.0	28.1	3.4	38.5	146.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -6.9%

SAC +28.0%

SAC +26.4%

SAC +8.6%

DAL -6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.0	14.4	15.5	107.9	112.7	101.6
season	15.1	14.0		108.6	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.3		98.6	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	14.2	16.6	12.8	14.0
SAC	13.4	14.6	14.1	15.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	20	21	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.04	9	-15	24	13.0	14.3	-1.21	14.4	14.3	0.10
Raja Bell	51	49	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.17	13	-19	32	13.9	14.1	-0.20	14.3	14.4	-0.13
Shawn Bradley	14	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-6	6	17.4	13.5	3.96	13.7	14.4	-0.68
Eduardo Najera	11	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	1	-8	14.1	14.0	0.08	12.5	14.6	-2.10
Raef LaFrentz	57	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	0	-6	13.5	14.7	-1.21	15.1	13.4	1.66
Dirk Nowitzki	99	101	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.31	-6	0	-6	14.2	6.5	7.67	14.2	28.0	-13.78
Michael Finley	98	99	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	4	-14	14.0	13.7	0.36	14.4	14.0	0.36
Nick Van Exel	76	77	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.28	-12	6	-18	14.0	14.2	-0.19	14.2	14.9	-0.75
Steve Nash	79	81	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.32	-11	5	-16	13.9	14.3	-0.38	14.6	13.6	0.98

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	95	94	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	-2	10	14.0	19.1	-5.14	14.1	12.9	1.25
Jim Jackson	60	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-3	12	14.7	13.9	0.76	13.4	15.0	-1.60
Bobby Jackson	60	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-3	12	14.7	13.9	0.76	13.4	15.0	-1.60
Peja Stojakovic	92	91	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.33	5	1	4	14.0	17.5	-3.49	14.0	14.2	-0.20
Vlade Divac	73	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	5	-4	15.1	12.4	2.66	13.8	14.6	-0.83
Keon Clark	15	15	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.06	8	-2	10	13.9	14.4	-0.57	14.8	13.9	0.92
Mike Bibby	52	52	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	9	-12	14.2	14.5	-0.21	14.6	13.4	1.27
Hedo Turkoglu	63	64	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	13	-20	14.1	14.7	-0.63	14.7	12.8	1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.63,0.79,0.84,0.93,0.85,0.96,1,1,1	93.5%
CHH 93, NJN 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.9%
PHX 105, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.95,1	92.7%