NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	110		Excitement	7.6 [414]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +26.7%
New York Knicks	116		Comeback	7.2 [205]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DEN): -21.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.27	0.16	0.11	0.00	14	81%	0.30	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Jeff Green	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	0.01	5	100%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.01	10	55%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	52%	0.05	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Thomas Bryant	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.00	6	61%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	83%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,-0.03,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	0.02	-0.11	0.00	18	65%	0.16	6	-0.25	1	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21	-0.06	-0.15	-0.00	7	29%	-0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.12	0.11	-0.01	13	66%	0.25	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.07	0.00	5	93%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.09	0.03	20	55%	0.19	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.16,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	15	54%	0.20	3	-0.13	7	100%	0.04
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.04,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	43%	0.04	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	1.0	26.5	14.8	25.7	1.8	30.2	126.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +3.4%

NYK +30.1%

NYK +8.5%

NYK +8.4%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NYK	NBA	DEN	NYK	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	14.4	117.0	123.4	113.4
season	14.7	15.1		116.6	115.6
opponent	14.4	14.5		112.9	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	12.6	16.0	18.1	15.2
NYK	13.3	15.7	16.0	17.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	55	56	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.19	7	-13	20	15.1	15.4	-0.23	17.4	12.5	4.94
Aaron Gordon	57	57	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-8	10	15.1	15.4	-0.30	17.6	12.0	5.63
Nikola Jokic	69	71	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.21	2	-8	10	14.8	16.5	-1.77	16.5	11.9	4.64
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	68	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.33	3	-9	12	15.0	15.8	-0.81	16.9	11.2	5.65
Thomas Bryant	22	20	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	2	-10	16.0	15.0	1.01	11.2	16.6	-5.35
Bruce Brown	58	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-1	-4	15.0	15.6	-0.58	13.9	17.9	-4.01
Jamal Murray	69	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.11	-10	4	-14	15.6	14.2	1.45	15.2	15.9	-0.61
Jeff Green	40	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	2	-10	15.8	14.8	0.96	12.3	17.7	-5.34
Christian Braun	32	31	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	7	-20	15.4	15.1	0.32	11.8	17.2	-5.38

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitchell Robinson	49	48	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.31	11	-5	16	16.4	14.3	2.07	16.2	14.2	1.93
RJ Barrett	68	67	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.20	13	-7	20	14.8	17.1	-2.30	16.2	12.7	3.54
Josh Hart	64	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.50	-5	11	-16	15.0	16.2	-1.20	14.7	16.3	-1.62
Quentin Grimes	38	38	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.13	15	-9	24	15.8	15.1	0.72	15.9	14.8	1.08
Julius Randle	71	71	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	1	4	16.3	12.7	3.66	14.7	16.8	-2.12
Immanuel Quickley	53	53	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.25	0	6	-6	14.1	17.2	-3.11	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Obi Toppin	23	23	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	5	-4	12.7	16.3	-3.66	16.8	14.7	2.12
Jalen Brunson	59	59	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	11	-16	17.5	11.9	5.62	14.7	16.1	-1.46
Isaiah Hartenstein	45	46	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	11	-16	14.3	16.4	-2.07	14.2	16.2	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.34,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 65, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.76,0.66,0.71,0.84,0.86,0.92,1	90.1%
PHX 103, NOH 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.94,0.92,1	89.6%
DAL 103, NOP 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.76,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.7,0.54,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.94,1,1	88.9%