NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	110		Excitement	3.9 [1084]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): +24.1%
Toronto Raptors	125		Comeback	1.0 [885]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -14.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.16	0.02	0.03	13	82%	0.17	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.15	0.00	0.07	13	82%	0.13	4	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	13	56%	0.05	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.04
Jeff Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.01	0.04	7	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.17	-0.04	-0.06	18	35%	-0.07	5	-0.07	4	75%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.26	0.04	0.06	22	77%	0.26	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
O.G. Anunoby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.19	-0.00	0.07	14	86%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.01	6	86%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.02	-0.05	16	53%	0.10	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	33%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.04	-0.06	16	36%	0.04	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Christian Koloko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malachi Flynn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	48%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.7	28.0	14.4	28.5	2.5	30.7	129.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +23.3%

TOR +2.1%

TOR +16.9%

TOR +9.3%

DEN -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	14.4	114.6	130.2	113.4
season	14.7	14.7		116.6	114.0
opponent	14.5	14.5		112.2	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	14.2	13.2	13.9	14.0
TOR	13.2	15.8	16.8	18.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlatko Cancar	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	9.0	14.1	-5.06	14.7	16.1	-1.42
Ish Smith	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	9.0	14.1	-5.06	14.7	16.1	-1.42
Thomas Bryant	16	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-10	5	14.6	13.8	0.72	14.4	16.4	-1.98
Michael Porter Jr.	67	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-7	-1	13.5	15.0	-1.54	16.1	15.9	0.16
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	60	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-7	-1	13.6	14.5	-0.82	16.0	16.0	0.02
Bruce Brown	43	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-12	9	14.2	13.7	0.50	17.0	15.3	1.75
Nikola Jokic	73	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-7	-1	13.6	15.1	-1.48	15.7	17.0	-1.24
Jeff Green	37	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-10	5	14.4	13.7	0.77	16.2	15.9	0.28
Aaron Gordon	68	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	-5	-5	13.9	14.0	-0.11	16.8	14.2	2.58
Christian Braun	32	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	-3	-9	14.8	13.5	1.23	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Jamal Murray	80	79	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.08	-20	5	-25	14.4	11.9	2.43	15.9	16.8	-0.95

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	54	57	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.30	30	-15	45	15.9	16.2	-0.26	14.0	13.8	0.19
Pascal Siakam	78	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.04	17	-2	19	16.3	14.7	1.62	14.2	12.8	1.38
Fred VanVleet	77	78	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.11	21	-6	27	15.6	17.8	-2.18	13.9	14.4	-0.53
Scottie Barnes	77	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.20	24	-9	33	15.6	17.7	-2.11	13.8	14.4	-0.60
O.G. Anunoby	71	73	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.10	13	2	11	15.7	17.0	-1.24	13.6	15.1	-1.48
Gary Trent Jr.	49	47	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.33	-5	20	-25	16.6	15.5	1.12	14.3	13.7	0.58
Christian Koloko	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	14.7	16.1	-1.42	9.0	14.1	-5.06
Malachi Flynn	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	14.7	16.1	-1.42	9.0	14.1	-5.06
Chris Boucher	23	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	17	-19	15.1	16.3	-1.20	14.6	13.8	0.80
Will Barton	19	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	21	-27	17.8	15.6	2.18	14.4	13.9	0.53
Precious Achiuwa	26	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.29	-13	28	-41	17.6	15.5	2.11	14.1	13.9	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.89,0.87,0.82,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 102, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
MIN 88, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.78,0.78,0.62,0.76,0.72,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.9,0.94,1,1	94.4%
ORL 103, CHA 117	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.8,0.81,0.96,0.88,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%