NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	6.5 [622]		MVP	Mikal Bridges (BKN): +61.6%
Brooklyn Nets	116		Comeback	2.2 [591]		LVP	Seth Curry (BKN): -7.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.00	0.01	14	60%	0.11	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Max Strus	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	15	56%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	11	54%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Duncan Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	7	43%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.02	0.03	19	53%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.02
Jamaree Bouyea	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Haywood Highsmith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	87%	0.09	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Orlando Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	11	48%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mikal Bridges	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62	0.62	0.34	0.25	-0.02	24	82%	0.70	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.05
Cam Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	11	73%	0.19	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.05	0.04	4	112%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.04	0.04	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	7	53%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	14	56%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Nic Claxton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	28.5	14.6	28.3	2.4	25.5	126.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BKN +56.2%

BKN +6.6%

MIA -8.1%

MIA -4.5%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BKN	NBA	MIA	BKN	NBA
this game	16.6	15.2	14.4	115.4	128.9	113.4
season	15.1	14.4		111.9	113.7
opponent	14.8	14.6		113.0	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.1	16.0	16.8	18.9	16.6
BKN	15.6	15.3	13.2	17.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Orlando Robinson	8	8	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-14	17	14.2	16.8	-2.55	15.6	15.2	0.42
Haywood Highsmith	46	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-11	11	15.8	17.3	-1.46	15.3	15.2	0.14
Duncan Robinson	44	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-11	11	16.4	16.7	-0.31	16.1	14.5	1.60
Jamaree Bouyea	28	26	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-6	1	15.0	17.3	-2.27	15.7	15.1	0.58
Max Strus	74	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	-3	-5	16.7	15.9	0.78	15.0	16.3	-1.29
Jimmy Butler	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-2	-7	17.0	15.8	1.22	15.3	15.1	0.27
Caleb Martin	60	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-1	-9	16.8	16.2	0.57	15.3	15.1	0.22
Gabe Vincent	64	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.17	-9	-2	-7	17.3	14.8	2.55	15.0	15.9	-0.92
Bam Adebayo	72	71	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.15	-17	6	-23	16.7	16.2	0.46	14.8	16.7	-1.89

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikal Bridges	67	68	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-4	19	14.6	17.1	-2.48	17.1	14.9	2.28
Royce O'Neale	47	47	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	2	7	15.7	14.7	0.96	15.8	17.4	-1.67
Nic Claxton	48	48	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.01	15	-4	19	14.6	16.0	-1.33	17.4	15.7	1.66
Cameron Johnson	63	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	2	7	15.4	15.0	0.40	17.3	14.8	2.53
Spencer Dinwiddie	66	68	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	5	1	15.6	14.2	1.47	16.6	16.5	0.07
Ben Simmons	36	37	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	7	-3	15.9	14.8	1.12	17.1	16.2	0.90
Cam Thomas	41	38	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	11	-11	15.7	14.8	0.89	17.1	16.2	0.83
Joe Harris	24	26	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	9	-7	15.1	15.3	-0.22	15.0	17.2	-2.15
Dorian Finney-Smith	40	42	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	12	-13	14.2	16.1	-1.88	15.4	17.6	-2.26
Seth Curry	18	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	15	-19	16.3	15.0	1.29	14.6	17.1	-2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.48,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.89,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 101, SEA 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,1	93.4%
DET 85, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.2%
GSW 90, LAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	93.2%