NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	6.5 [516]		MVP	Mike Scott (ATL): +13.7%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.9 [751]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -10.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Harrellson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gigi Datome	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	21	49%	0.08	4	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Peyton Siva	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	43%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Andre Drummond	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	11	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	12	67%	0.17	5	-0.20	3	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.07	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	39%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	15	34%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.04	0.11	-0.07	9	48%	0.21	4	-0.07	5	60%	0.01
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	6	46%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.01	6	61%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	5	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	14	59%	0.13	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	14	60%	0.03	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	3	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	26.2	15.8	23.0	1.5	36.2	128.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +39.9%

ATL +14.3%

DET -3.1%

DET -1.0%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	16.8	13.9	15.1	90.4	98.9	105.2
season	15.0	14.8		104.7	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.0		104.7	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.2	19.0	16.3	15.8	16.8
ATL	14.3	13.8	15.7	11.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gigi Datome	19	19	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.10	12	-20	32	18.1	16.4	1.69	14.6	13.7	0.87
Peyton Siva	12	13	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.08	11	-19	30	15.7	16.9	-1.25	15.6	13.6	2.01
Kyle Singler	43	43	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.08	3	-11	14	16.8	16.7	0.15	14.1	13.7	0.43
Josh Harrellson	9	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-5	2	21.3	16.3	5.06	16.1	13.6	2.48
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	48	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	0	-8	15.3	18.3	-2.99	13.3	14.5	-1.25
Andre Drummond	71	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-9	10	16.2	18.5	-2.34	13.8	14.2	-0.39
Rodney Stuckey	48	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-5	2	18.3	15.1	3.18	14.2	13.5	0.71
Greg Monroe	68	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.07	-19	11	-30	16.8	16.7	0.14	13.7	14.4	-0.74
Brandon Jennings	80	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.18	-16	8	-24	16.9	16.1	0.72	13.8	14.5	-0.77
Josh Smith	72	72	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.23	-18	10	-28	16.3	18.2	-1.92	13.5	15.0	-1.46

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	72	72	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.21	17	-9	26	13.5	15.0	-1.52	16.3	18.2	-1.86
Jeff Teague	69	69	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.20	15	-7	22	13.7	14.4	-0.70	16.0	18.9	-2.95
Al Horford	64	65	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.03	17	-9	26	13.3	15.1	-1.79	16.0	18.4	-2.35
Mike Scott	39	38	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	5	-2	12.2	15.1	-2.87	16.7	16.8	-0.03
Shelvin Mack	32	32	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.37	-6	14	-20	13.7	14.0	-0.30	18.5	15.9	2.60
Paul Millsap	52	53	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	4	0	15.4	12.0	3.32	17.3	16.0	1.25
Louis Williams	26	26	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	8	-8	15.9	13.1	2.77	18.5	16.1	2.41
Kyle Korver	62	63	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.30	12	-4	16	13.7	14.2	-0.51	17.1	16.0	1.08
Gustavo Ayon	33	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.21	-8	16	-24	14.6	13.5	1.16	17.3	16.5	0.89
Cartier Martin	21	20	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.26	-14	22	-36	14.0	13.8	0.21	14.9	17.3	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 79, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.64,0.88,0.95,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	93.7%
OKC 92, NYK 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.91,0.67,0.81,0.97,1,0.98,1	93.5%
HOU 97, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.29,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.75,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%