NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	119		Excitement	8.8 [205]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +42.3%
Denver Nuggets	124		Comeback	6.7 [333]		LVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): -15.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.3,0.55,0.44,0.42	0.13	0.29	-0.00	18	65%	0.45	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.13	0.11	-0.00	13	70%	0.28	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.02	0.08	-0.11	13	50%	0.24	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
Orlando Robinson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	5	81%	0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.00	7	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	56%	0.07	4	-0.12	11	91%	0.04
Kyle Lowry	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	6	58%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	6	25%	-0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.28	0.28	0.20	0.10	0.02	7	125%	0.34	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Vlatko Cancar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.07	0.00	5	125%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.00	0.26	0.03	9	61%	0.31	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.08
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.05	0.19	0.00	15	61%	0.33	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.04	0.11	-0.01	8	52%	0.14	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	72%	0.12	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	9	84%	0.17	6	-0.18	1	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	11	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	25.4	15.7	29.3	2.5	36.2	136.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +64.0%

MIA -18.0%

DEN +12.3%

MIA -15.2%

DEN +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	14.3	14.4	119.0	122.8	113.4
season	15.1	14.7		111.9	116.6
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.3	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	14.8	11.8	16.2	14.3
DEN	13.0	15.9	13.1	15.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	31	32	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.06	-1	-4	3	14.5	14.3	0.16	16.3	13.4	2.88
Haywood Highsmith	48	48	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-3	1	14.1	14.6	-0.49	12.5	15.9	-3.42
Orlando Robinson	35	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-4	3	14.7	14.1	0.58	15.9	13.5	2.40
Duncan Robinson	38	38	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	1	-7	14.9	14.0	0.94	15.9	13.3	2.57
Max Strus	65	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-7	9	14.3	14.5	-0.18	15.3	12.5	2.87
Jimmy Butler	78	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.44	-1	-4	3	14.4	14.0	0.38	14.7	13.0	1.72
Bam Adebayo	65	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	-1	-3	14.1	14.7	-0.58	13.5	15.9	-2.40
Tyler Herro	71	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.37	-6	1	-7	14.2	14.8	-0.59	13.3	16.7	-3.38
Kyle Lowry	69	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.38	-6	1	-7	14.3	14.5	-0.16	13.4	16.3	-2.88

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	77	78	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.34	14	-9	23	13.7	16.3	-2.59	14.6	13.6	0.96
Bruce Brown	53	50	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.66	3	2	1	15.0	13.5	1.52	14.3	14.4	-0.08
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	66	67	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-2	9	13.3	16.1	-2.79	14.4	14.2	0.24
Aaron Gordon	69	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.47	0	5	-5	13.8	15.4	-1.55	14.8	13.3	1.49
Bones Hyland	46	44	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	-4	13	15.8	13.1	2.77	14.7	14.1	0.57
Vlatko Cancar	37	35	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.17	9	-4	13	15.2	13.8	1.42	14.0	14.5	-0.57
Christian Braun	7	7	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	2	1	13.4	14.4	-0.95	12.1	14.5	-2.36
Jamal Murray	72	72	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.24	-9	14	-23	14.3	14.4	-0.14	13.8	15.6	-1.81
DeAndre Jordan	24	22	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.02	-9	14	-23	16.3	13.7	2.59	13.6	14.6	-0.96
Michael Porter Jr.	54	55	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.20	-2	7	-9	13.7	15.0	-1.36	14.6	14.0	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.31,0.24,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.32,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.96,1	90.7%
BOS 78, WAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.54,0.34,0.38,0.15,0.33,0.95,1	90.6%
HOU 103, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.17,0.27,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.34,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.73,1	90.5%