NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	7.2 [477]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +47.2%
Houston Rockets	108		Comeback	2.0 [753]		LVP	Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU): -16.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.47	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47	0.33	0.15	0.01	20	91%	0.55	4	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Max Strus	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	14	41%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	62%	0.09	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	13	56%	0.10	4	-0.08	10	60%	-0.03
Haywood Highsmith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	12	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.01	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	7	36%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
TyTy Washington Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Usman Garuba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	11	52%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	14	48%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Jalen Green	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	21	46%	0.02	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.11	0.02	17	60%	-0.01	6	-0.15	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	26.2	14.6	29.5	1.8	36.0	134.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.0%

MIA +18.9%

HOU -8.7%

MIA +14.3%

HOU -5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	14.1	14.4	113.3	110.2	113.4
season	15.1	14.8		111.9	109.8
opponent	13.9	14.6		118.0	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	14.1	15.6	16.3	15.3
HOU	14.0	13.6	13.2	15.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Orlando Robinson	72	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.35	11	-8	19	15.4	15.2	0.17	13.9	14.5	-0.60
Caleb Martin	64	62	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-8	19	15.4	15.2	0.21	14.5	13.3	1.25
Tyler Herro	82	81	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	-1	5	15.5	14.4	1.13	14.1	14.1	0.02
Max Strus	68	67	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.44	-6	9	-15	15.1	15.8	-0.65	14.1	14.0	0.10
Haywood Highsmith	59	62	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	1	1	15.7	14.7	1.08	13.8	14.5	-0.68
Jimmy Butler	74	73	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.41	-7	10	-17	14.9	16.5	-1.51	13.9	14.5	-0.55
Duncan Robinson	47	50	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	-2	7	15.3	15.4	-0.12	14.2	13.9	0.30
Udonis Haslem	24	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	8	-13	15.1	15.4	-0.25	14.0	14.1	-0.09

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tari Eason	31	30	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-7	11	13.4	14.4	-1.00	17.4	14.4	3.00
Usman Garuba	41	39	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.33	12	-15	27	14.2	13.9	0.30	16.3	14.7	1.60
Kenyon Martin Jr.	42	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-5	7	14.9	13.5	1.37	16.3	14.7	1.62
Jalen Green	73	74	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.41	7	-10	17	13.9	14.5	-0.55	14.9	16.5	-1.51
Garrison Mathews	17	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	7	-17	14.0	14.1	-0.09	13.1	15.8	-2.69
Alperen Sengun	47	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	1	-5	14.1	14.0	0.11	15.0	15.6	-0.60
Kevin Porter Jr.	73	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.36	4	-7	11	13.9	14.5	-0.55	14.9	16.5	-1.51
TyTy Washington Jr.	25	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	4	-11	14.5	13.9	0.55	16.5	14.9	1.51
Bruno Fernando	10	9	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	8	-19	13.1	14.2	-1.08	12.8	15.6	-2.80
Eric Gordon	64	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.29	-5	2	-7	13.7	14.7	-0.97	15.7	14.5	1.17
Jabari Smith Jr.	67	68	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	4	-11	14.4	13.4	1.00	14.4	17.4	-3.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.11,0.2,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.12,0.26,0.15,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 88, OKC 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.25,0.18,0.17,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0	93.8%
PHI 126, LAL 121	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.28,0.42,0.3,0.28,0.33,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0	92.5%
CLE 121, WAS 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.39,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.3%