NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	8.6 [235]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +68.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	108		Comeback	11.9 [168]		LVP	Caleb Martin (MIA): -17.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.69	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.42,0.69	0.25	0.44	-0.01	23	73%	0.74	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Victor Oladipo	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.13	0.01	8	63%	0.23	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.05
Duncan Robinson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	8	78%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.00	10	70%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	5	58%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Max Strus	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	11	45%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	13	47%	-0.01	5	-0.11	6	83%	-0.01
Caleb Martin	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	6	25%	-0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Giddey	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.19	0.19	0.04	0.14	-0.01	15	63%	0.26	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	10	70%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	3	89%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	12	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.05
Tre Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	23%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Aleksej Pokusevski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eugene Omoruyi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.11,-0.15	-0.15	0.02	-0.13	0.04	20	59%	0.20	5	-0.35	6	100%	0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.7	24.6	14.6	24.2	2.3	36.9	128.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.0%

OKC -20.6%

OKC -8.3%

MIA +19.2%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	15.0	14.1	14.4	110.0	110.2	113.4
season	15.1	13.7		111.9	113.5
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.8	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	15.5	16.6	14.2	15.0
OKC	13.9	15.8	12.7	14.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Oladipo	63	61	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.34	18	-16	34	14.7	15.5	-0.77	15.0	12.5	2.56
Tyler Herro	85	81	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	2	-2	14.7	16.9	-2.24	13.9	14.6	-0.72
Kyle Lowry	60	61	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.72	-10	12	-22	16.4	12.9	3.55	13.0	15.8	-2.78
Duncan Robinson	48	46	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	-12	26	13.3	16.6	-3.26	15.4	12.8	2.57
Dewayne Dedmon	27	28	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.09	14	-12	26	13.7	15.5	-1.87	16.3	13.2	3.13
Caleb Martin	73	70	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.64	-12	14	-26	15.5	13.7	1.87	13.2	16.3	-3.13
Haywood Highsmith	34	36	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.19	14	-12	26	13.9	15.6	-1.69	16.0	12.9	3.08
Bam Adebayo	72	69	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.31	-14	16	-30	15.5	13.9	1.58	13.3	15.9	-2.62
Max Strus	38	38	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.04	-14	16	-30	16.3	14.2	2.07	12.4	15.1	-2.75

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Joe	34	34	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.02	5	-7	12	14.8	13.7	1.09	13.4	15.8	-2.41
Josh Giddey	76	78	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.37	15	-17	32	13.7	15.1	-1.40	15.1	14.7	0.45
Darius Bazley	63	64	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.46	13	-15	28	13.9	14.3	-0.45	15.6	13.9	1.70
Eugene Omoruyi	17	18	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.24	-14	12	-26	13.6	14.1	-0.56	13.3	15.4	-2.14
Mike Muscala	18	18	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.22	-1	-1	0	15.1	13.8	1.23	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Aleksej Pokusevski	16	16	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	11	-24	15.1	13.8	1.28	14.9	15.1	-0.18
Jalen Williams	67	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-1	0	13.4	15.4	-2.00	15.3	14.5	0.72
Tre Mann	11	12	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.16	-18	16	-34	16.4	13.8	2.61	13.3	15.3	-1.93
Aaron Wiggins	49	51	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	15	-32	15.3	12.8	2.43	13.9	16.2	-2.34
Luguentz Dort	67	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.77	11	-13	24	13.5	15.3	-1.81	16.0	13.0	3.03
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	72	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.78	10	-12	22	13.7	14.9	-1.13	15.6	13.3	2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.31,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.52,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.71,0.85,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 93, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.27,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.43,0.28,0	89.3%
BOS 82, LAC 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.42,0	89.0%
LAC 102, DEN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.46,0.45,0.31,0	88.8%