NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	112		Excitement	10.2 [70]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +50.3%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	37.0 [62]		LVP	Cameron Payne (PHX): -19.5%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damion Lee	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.03	-0.03	9	78%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Duane Washington Jr.	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.00	-0.00	14	75%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	80%	0.18	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jock Landale	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	3	33%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Booker	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,0.14,0.42,0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.01	22	54%	0.13	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Okogie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mikal Bridges	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.08	0.01	14	54%	-0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	10	45%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Cameron Payne	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	17	26%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.5	0.50	0.09	0.39	-0.02	18	60%	0.56	3	-0.06	14	86%	0.12
Caleb Martin	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.09	0.01	8	94%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.06	-0.00	7	86%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.06	0.02	12	55%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	8	31%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,0.02,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	14	47%	0.11	5	-0.22	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	24.2	15.4	28.6	2.4	34.2	129.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.9%

MIA +44.8%

PHX -49.4%

MIA +14.5%

MIA +18.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.4	14.4	121.7	124.2	113.4
season	14.5	15.1		114.2	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.1	112.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.6	14.5	16.2	19.3	16.1
MIA	14.8	16.2	15.8	15.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Washington Jr.	38	38	0.39	-0.89	1.27	0.03	12	-13	25	15.1	16.7	-1.64	15.1	15.7	-0.61
Bismack Biyombo	10	11	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.09	1	-2	3	14.9	16.2	-1.31	14.9	15.5	-0.57
Josh Okogie	13	13	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-6	11	13.8	16.4	-2.58	16.3	15.3	1.05
Damion Lee	43	44	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.03	2	-3	5	15.1	16.9	-1.83	14.5	16.2	-1.71
Jock Landale	17	19	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.09	6	-7	13	13.1	16.7	-3.62	14.4	15.7	-1.25
Mikal Bridges	77	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-5	9	15.8	17.3	-1.44	15.6	14.6	1.01
Devin Booker	78	77	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.43	-7	6	-13	16.7	12.4	4.29	15.3	16.1	-0.87
Torrey Craig	61	60	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.43	-7	6	-13	17.1	14.0	3.11	15.8	14.6	1.25
Deandre Ayton	65	61	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.47	-8	7	-15	17.0	13.8	3.24	15.8	14.6	1.20
Cameron Payne	58	58	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.53	-13	12	-25	16.2	15.8	0.48	15.6	15.1	0.54

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	67	68	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.42	12	-11	23	15.7	14.5	1.23	16.5	14.9	1.61
Caleb Martin	68	69	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.46	10	-9	19	15.5	15.1	0.43	16.6	14.6	1.94
Max Strus	69	67	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.53	4	-3	7	15.7	14.5	1.20	15.7	16.9	-1.17
Jimmy Butler	65	65	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.55	3	-2	5	15.4	15.3	0.14	16.4	15.2	1.19
Kyle Lowry	71	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-6	13	15.7	14.3	1.42	16.8	13.1	3.67
Duncan Robinson	41	42	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.01	-7	8	-15	14.7	16.0	-1.23	15.2	16.8	-1.61
Dewayne Dedmon	24	24	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.05	-11	12	-23	14.5	15.7	-1.23	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Gabe Vincent	50	51	-0.41	0.91	-1.33	-0.03	-13	14	-27	14.9	16.0	-1.08	15.1	17.3	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.28,0.38,0.46,0.33,0.43,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 96, CHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.31,0.45,0.34,0.57,1	92.9%
IND 100, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.46,0.22,0.28,1	92.8%
POR 107, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	91.5%