NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	92		Excitement	7.3 [404]		MVP	Caleb Martin (MIA): +29.0%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	2.4 [800]		LVP	Ben McLemore (POR): -23.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jusuf Nurkic	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.07	-0.02	10	64%	0.21	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	19	64%	0.19	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.05
Dennis Smith Jr.	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	3	62%	0.11	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Snell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trendon Watford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Brown III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Elleby	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Covington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	10	50%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.08	-0.01	20	60%	0.10	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Nassir Little	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.11	-0.00	7	0%	-0.18	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.22	0.09	0.02	12	84%	0.36	1	-0.07	7	100%	0.04
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.06	0.12	-0.02	6	80%	0.23	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.01	12	65%	0.18	3	-0.08	7	57%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omer Yurtseven	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.08	0.03	11	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Chris Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	13	38%	0.06	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Guy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	8	31%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.0	31.0	14.8	24.2	2.5	32.3	132.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.4%

MIA +4.3%

MIA +12.7%

MIA +10.8%

MIA +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	15.5	14.5	94.8	110.6	110.8
season	14.6	14.9		106.9	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.5		107.6	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	13.1	13.1	15.5	17.3	14.7
MIA	16.4	16.4	14.5	14.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Simons	77	75	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.16	6	-18	24	14.5	15.3	-0.77	15.9	14.0	1.85
Greg Brown III	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	4.0	14.8	-10.80	0.0	15.5	-15.48
Tony Snell	39	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.10	2	-14	16	15.0	14.5	0.47	14.6	16.1	-1.47
CJ McCollum	64	64	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.29	6	-18	24	14.9	14.3	0.59	16.4	13.5	2.86
Nassir Little	24	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-7	2	13.7	15.0	-1.36	16.4	15.2	1.20
Robert Covington	77	75	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-12	12	14.6	15.1	-0.52	15.7	14.6	1.13
Jusuf Nurkic	57	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-10	8	14.1	15.5	-1.33	16.0	14.8	1.20
CJ Elleby	38	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.07	-11	-1	-10	14.2	15.0	-0.83	15.0	15.8	-0.76
Trendon Watford	40	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-2	-8	15.5	14.1	1.33	14.8	16.0	-1.20
Dennis Smith Jr.	25	25	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.06	-22	10	-32	14.6	14.7	-0.07	15.8	15.4	0.38
Ben McLemore	43	39	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.04	-24	12	-36	15.9	13.7	2.18	13.4	17.0	-3.62

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Max Strus	62	65	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.03	22	-10	32	15.4	15.6	-0.13	15.0	14.1	0.84
Gabe Vincent	71	74	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.23	14	-2	16	15.3	16.2	-0.92	15.2	13.0	2.22
Caleb Martin	63	62	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-3	18	15.6	15.3	0.28	15.2	13.7	1.48
P.J. Tucker	66	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.20	7	5	2	15.3	16.0	-0.69	14.9	14.2	0.72
Dewayne Dedmon	29	30	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	-1	14	15.6	15.4	0.11	15.6	14.3	1.36
Bam Adebayo	65	67	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	13	-14	15.4	15.6	-0.11	14.3	15.6	-1.36
Kyle Guy	36	36	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	9	-6	15.9	15.2	0.75	13.7	15.3	-1.63
Jimmy Butler	31	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	15	-18	16.3	15.1	1.26	12.6	15.7	-3.18
Chris Silva	0	1	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.03	-2	14	-16	0.0	15.5	-15.48	17.0	14.7	2.33
Duncan Robinson	47	49	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.13	-8	20	-28	15.1	15.8	-0.70	14.7	14.7	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.51,0.58,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.89,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 101, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.47,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,1	92.3%
DET 83, MEM 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.89,1,1,1,1	91.3%
TOR 99, BOS 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.66,0.86,0.96,0.98,1,1	91.3%