NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	101		Excitement	7.2 [428]		MVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): +19.3%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	2.9 [539]		LVP	Christian Wood (CHA): -4.8%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19	0.14	0.04	-0.01	24	61%	0.26	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Marvin Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	-0.01	-0.07	8	70%	0.12	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	42%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jeremy Lamb	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	14	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Johnny O'Bryant III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Wood	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.07	0.01	16	67%	0.25	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	13	63%	0.20	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.05
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	8	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.02	9	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.07
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	6	50%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	10	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	8	33%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.05
Rodney McGruder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	33.6	14.0	25.2	2.3	27.8	129.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.6%

CHA -6.7%

MIA +25.0%

CHA -7.0%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.3	14.8	108.6	113.7	107.7
season	15.1	15.4		107.9	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.8		105.9	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.3	15.3	15.9	14.7	15.3
MIA	14.7	13.5	16.8	16.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kemba Walker	71	74	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.31	8	-15	23	15.4	14.9	0.53	15.9	13.4	2.44
Nicolas Batum	61	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.30	7	-14	21	14.9	16.1	-1.14	15.5	15.0	0.56
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	50	51	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-5	3	15.7	14.9	0.84	15.3	15.4	-0.15
Cody Zeller	80	81	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.36	7	-14	21	15.3	15.6	-0.35	16.1	11.1	4.99
Christian Wood	4	6	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	17.2	15.2	2.03	10.3	15.7	-5.33
Marvin Williams	72	76	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-8	9	14.3	18.9	-4.64	15.0	16.5	-1.43
Johnny O'Bryant III	9	8	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	3	-13	14.9	15.4	-0.47	11.6	15.7	-4.04
Jeremy Lamb	46	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	0	-7	16.5	14.1	2.44	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Brian Roberts	22	21	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.01	-15	8	-23	14.9	15.4	-0.53	13.4	15.9	-2.44
Marco Belinelli	50	51	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.23	-20	13	-33	15.8	14.8	1.01	16.0	14.6	1.37

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	69	68	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.25	20	-13	33	14.9	16.6	-1.72	15.0	16.2	-1.27
Willie Reed	28	26	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.13	20	-13	33	12.9	16.3	-3.45	16.7	14.8	1.86
James Johnson	58	57	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.19	13	-6	19	15.2	15.5	-0.35	15.1	15.6	-0.53
Tyler Johnson	43	39	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	8	-9	15.8	14.9	0.89	15.0	15.5	-0.54
Wayne Ellington	43	42	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	-2	11	15.1	15.5	-0.47	16.5	14.3	2.25
Rodney McGruder	28	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	8	-9	15.2	15.4	-0.16	15.6	15.2	0.42
Dion Waiters	53	53	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.06	-4	11	-15	16.1	14.4	1.69	14.4	16.5	-2.13
Luke Babbitt	37	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.10	-6	13	-19	15.5	15.2	0.35	15.6	15.1	0.53
Josh Richardson	49	49	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	9	-11	15.0	15.6	-0.59	15.8	14.8	1.02
Hassan Whiteside	67	67	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.17	-13	20	-33	16.3	12.9	3.45	14.8	16.7	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.47,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, NYK 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.18,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.94,0.99,1	92.3%
NOP 99, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.94,0.92,1	92.3%
DEN 119, MIA 124	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.97,1,1	91.0%