NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	7.5 [328]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +33.2%
New York Knicks	112		Comeback	4.4 [414]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NYK): -20.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.11	-0.01	11	68%	0.26	1	-0.03	9	67%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.02	15	61%	0.13	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Kenneth Faried	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Corey Brewer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	13	54%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	6	62%	-0.00	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Andre Iguodala	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	12	54%	0.04	5	-0.18	4	75%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.33	0.33	0.06	0.20	-0.07	24	53%	0.37	1	-0.04	16	69%	0.04
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.07	0.00	7	85%	0.21	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.00	6	64%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.05	4	25%	-0.04
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	5	64%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James White	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	15	31%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	19	34%	-0.12	2	-0.09	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	1.8	36.4	16.4	26.5	2.6	32.2	144.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +16.9%

DEN -3.2%

NYK +17.9%

NYK +22.6%

DEN -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NYK	NBA	DEN	NYK	NBA
this game	13.7	16.5	15.4	111.6	116.7	104.1
season	14.4	16.2		108.4	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.8	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	12.6	13.1	14.5	13.7
NYK	15.3	14.5	18.2	18.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	57	57	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.21	7	-13	20	12.6	15.4	-2.81	17.2	15.4	1.81
Danilo Gallinari	76	76	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.22	6	-12	18	13.4	14.7	-1.25	16.1	17.8	-1.69
Andre Iguodala	76	77	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.24	5	-11	16	13.4	14.7	-1.25	16.3	17.2	-0.87
Corey Brewer	44	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	2	-10	14.1	13.3	0.84	15.8	17.0	-1.27
JaVale McGee	30	32	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	6	-18	15.2	13.0	2.17	15.4	17.0	-1.63
Andre Miller	58	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.28	-10	4	-14	13.5	14.0	-0.47	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Kenneth Faried	55	58	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.34	-9	3	-12	14.7	12.3	2.39	17.5	14.9	2.63
Ty Lawson	79	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.37	-9	3	-12	13.6	14.1	-0.53	16.7	15.4	1.32

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	73	73	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.49	10	-4	14	16.3	16.9	-0.60	14.0	12.7	1.25
Jason Kidd	67	66	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.44	9	-3	12	17.0	15.2	1.74	13.7	13.8	-0.11
J.R. Smith	69	68	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-6	18	16.2	17.2	-1.01	13.7	13.6	0.18
Ronnie Brewer	53	55	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	0	6	16.3	16.7	-0.39	13.6	13.8	-0.16
Steve Novak	37	35	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.11	8	-2	10	17.5	15.8	1.63	14.9	13.0	1.90
Raymond Felton	58	57	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	6	-6	16.1	17.1	-1.03	13.2	14.4	-1.27
Carmelo Anthony	78	78	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.27	-10	16	-26	16.4	16.6	-0.12	13.6	14.1	-0.46
James White	1	1	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	6	-6	0.0	16.6	-16.63	4.0	13.8	-9.79
Pablo Prigioni	24	23	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	9	-12	17.0	16.3	0.78	13.9	13.6	0.24
Kurt Thomas	20	19	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.21	-2	8	-10	16.2	16.5	-0.33	12.6	13.9	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.18,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 101, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.47,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,1	92.3%
CHI 97, BOS 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	92.0%
DEN 91, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.7,0.76,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	91.9%